000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140406 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jun 14 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Carlos is centered near 11.6N 127.1W at 14/0000 UTC or 1195 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California moving west-southwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has decreased slightly to 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Carlos is identified as being a small tropical storm. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection within 120 nm of center in the SW quadrant, within 90 nm in the NW quadrant and within 60 nm in the eastern semicircle. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 09N to 11N between 123W-129W. Carlos is forecast to maintain its motion over the couple of days, then followed by a westward turn by the middle of the week as it weakens. Wave heights of between 10-14 ft will lower by late Tue, at which time the cyclone is forecast to become a tropical depression. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Carlos NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia to 11N86W to low pres near 13N94W to 12N103W and to 12N117W. The ITCZ begins southwest of Carlos at 10N132W and continues to beyond 08N140W. Aside from the convection associated with Tropical Storm Carlos, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 04N to 10N between 82W-96W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of trough between 113W-116W. 116W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1021 mb high pressure center is located near 24N135W. A ridge extends from it east-northeast to near 29N119W. A large upper- level low is noted south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California near 18N111W. This feature has weakened the persistent ridging that usually extends across waters south of Baja California. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms under a very moist and unstable atmospheric environment are present from 19N to 24N and east of 108W to inland Mexico. Similar activity is seen from 13N to 19N and east of 103W. The low pressure will migrate west-northwestward through Wed allowing for ridging to re- establish itself over the eastern Pacific waters through the remainder of the period. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure is expected to form by late this week a couple of hundred miles offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system thereafter as it moves slowly northwestward, roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. Expect increasing shower and thunderstorm activity over the forecast if this transpires. Latest altimeter data show seas to 7 ft in this region. These conditions will remain through Mon. Moderate SE winds over the southern portion of the Gulf of California will extend gradually towards the northern gulf through tonight. eas will be up to 3 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate west to northwest winds are forecast for the offshore waters from Guatemala to Nicaragua through Tue evening along with building seas in southwest swell. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds across the offshore waters between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador have reached the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama. These winds will diminish Tue afternoon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Carlos. Elsewhere, high pressure continues to dominate the waters north of 15N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds from 10N to 20N W of 120W. Light to gentle variable winds are within the ridge N of 20N and west of 125W. A weak cold front has moved into the northwest part of the area. The front will will gradually weaken until dissipation early Tue. Otherwise, an area of fresh to strong SW to W winds is observed from 09N to 12N between 100W and 113W with eave heights of up to 9 ft. This region coincides with an area of active convection, and will prevail through early Tue. $$ Aguirre