000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131546 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jun 13 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Carlos is centered near 11.8N 126.0W at 13/1500 UTC moving WSW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate convection is from 08N to 13N between 123W and 128W. A turn toward the west-southwest at a slower forward speed is forecast to occur this afternoon and continue through Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to a 1009 mb low pressure centered near 15N97W to 14N117W. The ITCZ begins near 10N129W and continues to 07N140W. Aside from the convection associated with Tropical Storm Carlos, scattered to numerous moderate convection is from 00N to 16N and east of 100W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 12N between 110W and 115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb high near 27N127W extends a ridge ESE to just west of the Baja California Norte offshore waters. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure over the Gulf of California and western Mexico supports moderate to fresh NW winds from Baja California Norte to Cabo San Lazaro offshore waters. Latest altimeter data show seas to 7 ft in this region. These conditions will remain through Mon. Light to gentle variable winds over the offshores between Jalisco to Guerrero will prevail through Wed. Showers and thunderstorms remain poorly organized in association with a weak area of low pressure located about a hundred miles south- southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Environmental conditions do not appear conducive for development, and formation of a tropical cyclone is not anticipated. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico through early next week. See products from your local meteorological service for more information. Moderate to fresh SE winds over the southern portion of the Gulf of California will extend gradually towards the northern gulf through Mon. Seas will be up to 3 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate W to NW winds are forecast for the offshore waters from Guatemala to Nicaragua through late Tue with seas to 7 ft in SW swell. Moderate S to SW winds across the offshore waters between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador have reached the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama. These conditions are forecast to continue through Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Carlos. Elsewhere, high pressure continues to dominate the waters north of 20N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds from 10N to 20N W of 120W. Light to gentle variable winds are within the ridge N of 20N and west of 124W. A weak cold front started to sink into the far NW forecast waters this morning. The front will continue to move ESE through tonight and then will gradually weaken until dissipation early Tue. Otherwise, an area of fresh to strong SW to W winds is observed from 09N to 12N between 101W and 114W with seas to 9 ft. This region coincides with an area of active convection, and will prevail through early Tue. $$ ERA