000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130905 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jun 13 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Carlos is centered near 11.9N 125.3W at 13/0900 UTC moving W at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate convection is from 08N to 13N between 123W and 128W. A turn toward the west-southwest at a slower forward speed is forecast to occur this afternoon and continue through Tuesday. Some additional slight strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to a 1009 mb low pressure centered near 15N97W to 13N104W to 14N116W. The ITCZ begins near 09N130W and continues to 07N140W. Aside from the convection associated with Tropical Storm Carlos, clusters of numerous moderate to strong convection are N of 00N E of 81W, from 09N to 13N between 85W and 95W, and from 08N to 13N between 109W and 115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1020 mb high near 27N130W extends a ridge ESE to just west of the Baja California Norte offshore waters. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure over the Gulf of California and western Mexico continues to support fresh to strong NW winds across the Baja California Norte and Cabo San Lazaro offshore waters. Seas are to 8 ft in this region. Similar conditions will continue through early next week. Light to gentle variable winds over the offshores between Jalisco to Guerrero will prevail through Wed. Showers and thunderstorms remain poorly organized in association with a weak area of low pressure located about a hundred miles south- southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for additional development over the next day or so. By early next week, the system is forecast to interact with land and a larger disturbance developing to its north, and further development is not anticipated. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico through early next week. See products from your local meteorological service for more information. Moderate to fresh SE winds over the southern portion of the Gulf of California will extend gradually towards the northern gulf through Mon. Seas will be up to 3 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate W to NW winds are forecast for the offshore waters from Guatemala to Nicaragua through late Tue with seas to 7 ft in SW swell. Moderate S to SW winds across the offshore waters between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador are reaching the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama tonight. These conditions are forecast to continue through Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on newly formed Tropical Storm Carlos. Elsewhere, high pressure continues to dominate the waters north of 15N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds from 07N to 22N W of 120W. Light to gentle winds are within the ridge N of 22N and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere with seas to 8 ft. SW swell into the waters south of the equator and E of 120W is supporting seas in the 6-7 ft range. The swell is forecast to subside by late Sun. $$ Ramos