000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122130 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jun 12 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Three-E has develolped, with center near 11.8N 123.6W at 12/2100 UTC moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, with seas to 8 ft. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 07N to 13N between 121W and 128W. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Showers and thunderstorms remain poorly organized in association with a weak area of low pressure located about a hundred miles SSW of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Environmental conditions appear to be somewhat conducive for further development over the next day or so, and a short-lived tropical depression could still form during that time. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico through early next week. See products from your local meteorological service for more information. This system has a medium chance of formation within the next 48 hours. Please see the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook at for more information on the potential for tropical cyclogenesis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to a 1007 mb low pressure centered near 15N97W to a 1008 mb low pressure centered near 12N123W to 09N134W. The ITCZ begins near 09N134W and continues to 07N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the areas described in the Special Features section above, scattered moderate convection is noted within 250 nm on either side of the monsoon trough mainly east of 115W. Scattered showers prevail along the remainder of the boundaries. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more on the potential for tropical cyclone formation south of Mexico. A 1022 mb high near 27N130W extends a ridge ESE to the Baja California offshore waters. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure over the Gulf of California and western Mexico continues to support fresh to strong NW winds west of the Baja California peninsula with seas to 7 ft. Similar conditions will continue through early next week. Light to gentle variable winds over the offshores between Jalisco to Guerrero will prevail through Wed. Heavy showers and tstms associated with the area of low pressure in the Special Features continue to affect the Oaxaca and Chiapas offshore waters. Mariners should exercise caution in this area. Gentle to moderate NW winds in the Gulf of California will diminish to light to gentle today. Moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast to develop over the southern portion of the Gulf this evening and extends gradually towards the northern gulf through Mon. Seas will be up to 3 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate W to NW winds are forecast for the offshore waters from Guatemala to Nicaragua through late Tue with seas to 7 ft in SW swell. Moderate S to SW winds across the offshore waters between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador will reach the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama this evening and prevail through Tue. SW swell will support seas to 7 ft during this period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on T.D Three-E. Elsewhere, high pressure continues to dominate the waters north of 15N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds from 07N to 22N W of 120W. Light to gentle winds are within the ridge N of 22N and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere with seas to 8 ft. SW swell into the waters south of the equator and E of 120W is supporting seas in the 6-9 ft range. The swell is forecast to subside by late Sun. These conditions will continue through the week. $$ ERA