000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121552 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jun 12 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Morning satellite imagery indicates that the broad area of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to become better organized. If this trend continues, advisories for a tropical depression could be initiated later today or tonight as the system moves slowly westward. Early next week, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. There is a high chance of formation of this system during the next 48 hours. Showers and thunderstorms remain poorly organized this morning in association with a broad area of low pressure located about a hundred miles south of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for some additional development, and a tropical depression could still form over the weekend, as long as the system remains over water while drifting northeastward. Despite if the system develops or not, heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico through early next week. See products from your local meteorological service for more information. This system has a medium chance of formation within the next 48 hours. Please see the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook at for more information on the potential for tropical cyclogenesis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to a 1007 mb low pressure centered near 14N97W to a 1008 mb low pressure centered near 12N123W to 09N134W. The ITCZ begins near 09N134W and continues to 07N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the two areas of low pressure described in the special features section above, scattered moderate convection is noted within 250 nm on either sides of the monsoon trough mainly east of 113W. Scattered showers prevail along the remainder of the boundaries. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more on the potential for tropical cyclone formation south of Mexico. A 1023 mb high near 28N131W extends a ridge ESE to the Baja California Norte offshore waters. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure over the Gulf of California and western Mexico is supporting fresh to locally strong NW winds west of the Baja California peninsula with seas to 8 ft. These features will weaken slightly but remain nearly in place through early next week, thus supporting moderate to fresh NW winds Mon through Tue evening. Seas will be in the 5 to 7 ft range during that period. Light to gentle variable winds over the offshores between Jalisco to Guerrero will prevail through early Wed. Heavy showers and tstms associated with the area of low pressure in the special features continue to affect the Oaxaca and Chiapas offshore waters. Mariners should exercise caution in this area. Gentle to moderate NW winds in the Gulf of California will diminish to light to gentle today. Moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast to develop over the southern portion of the Gulf this evening and extends gradually towards the northern gulf through Mon. Seas will be up to 3 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate W to NW winds are forecast for the offshore waters from Guatemala to Nicaragua through late Tue with seas to 7 ft in SW swell. Moderate S to SW winds across the offshore waters between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador will reach the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama this evening and prevail through Tue. SW swell will support seas to 7 ft during this period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for the possibility of tropical cyclogenesis associated with a broad area of low pressure near 12N123W. Elsewhere, high pressure continues to dominate the waters north of 20N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds from 07N to 22N W of 120W. Light to gentle winds are within the ridge N of 22N and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere with seas to 7 ft. SW swell into the waters south of the equator and E of 120W is supporting seas in the 6-8 ft range. The swell is forecast to subside Sun night. $$ ERA