000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120359 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jun 12 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization today in association with a broad area of low pressure located about a hundred miles south of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 105 nm NW quadrant of the low. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression could still form by this weekend, as long as the system remains over water while drifting north-northeastward. Heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico through early next week. See products from your local meteorological service for more information. Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 14N between 117W and 129W. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some additional development over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the system moves slowly westward. There is a medium chance that this system will develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 2 to 5 days. Please see the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook at for more information on the potential for tropical cyclogenesis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to a 1007 mb low pressure centered near 14N97W to 13N113W to a 1009 mb low pressure centered near 11N120W to 07N140W. Aside the convection associated with the two areas of low pressure in the special features section, scattered moderate convection is N of 14N between 91W and 96W, from 08N to 13N between 102W and 115W, and from 03N to 10N W of 130W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N to 12N between 90W and 93W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see special features section above for more on the potential for tropical cyclone formation south of Mexico. A 1022 mb high near 28N133W extends a ridge ESE to the Baja California Norte offshore waters. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure over the Gulf of California and western Mexico is supporting fresh to locally strong NW winds west of the Baja California peninsula. These features will weaken slightly but remain nearly in place through early next week, thus supporting moderate to fresh NW winds Mon through Wed. Seas will be in the 5 to 7 ft range during that period. Light to gentle winds over the offshores between Jalisco to Guerrero will prevail through Sun, then increase to moderate to locally fresh Sun night through early next week as the low pressure over the Oaxaca offshore waters drifts WNW to this region. Heavy showers and tstms associated with the area of low pressure are covering the Oaxaca offshore waters. Mariners should exercise caution in this area. Gentle to moderate NW winds in the Gulf of California will diminish Saturday to light to getle. Moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast to develop over the southern portion of the Gulf Sat evening and extends gradually towards the northern gulf through Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough extends across the waters along 10N. Light to gentle NE winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle westerly winds are south of the monsoon trough, except between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador where moderate southerly winds prevail. Seas are in the 7-8 ft range over the waters between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Light to gentle winds over the offshore waters N of 03N will continue through Sun morning before increasing modestly. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds over the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters will prevail into Sun before diminishing slightly. Long- period SW swell will prevail over the waters between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador through Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see special features section for the possibility of tropical cyclogenesis associated with a couple of areas of low pressure. Elsewhere, a ridge of high pressure prevails over the waters north of 20N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds from 09N to 22N. Light to gentle winds are within the ridge N of 22N and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. A small area of seas to 8 ft prevail north of the monsoon trough west of 135W to near 15N. Elsewhere, seas are in the 4-7 ft range. SW swell has propagated into the waters south of the equator, with seas in the 6-8 ft range. $$ Ramos