000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120303 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jun 12 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization today in association with a broad area of low pressure located about a hundred miles south of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 105 nm NW quadrant of the low. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression could still form by this weekend, as long as the system remains over water while drifting north-northeastward. Heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico through early next week. See products from your local meteorological service for more information. Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 14N between 117W and 129W. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some additional development over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the system moves slowly westward. There is a medium chance that this system will develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 2 to 5 days. Please see the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook at for more information on the potential for tropical cyclogenesis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to a 1007 mb low pressure centered near 13.5N97W to 13N112W to a 1009 mb low pressure centered near 11N119W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 13N between 88W and 92W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 92W and 109W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 117W and 126W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 126W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see special features section above for more on the potential for tropical cyclone formation south of Mexico. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends west of the Baja California peninsula. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a surface trough over the Gulf of California is supporting fresh to locally strong winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere across the open waters off Mexico as well as over the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 7-8 ft range west of the Baja California peninsula, 5-7 ft south of Mexico, 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California, and 4-5 ft over the remainder of the open waters off Mexico. Active convection is covering the waters south of Mexico in association broad area of low pressure centered couple hundred miles south of Puerto Angel, Mexico. There is the potential for this low to develop into tropical depression this weekend while the system drifts north- northeastward. Mariners can expect areas of heavy rainfall in association with this low. Elsewhere, high pressure west of the area will support moderate to fresh NW winds, and seas to 8 ft, off Baja California through Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough extends across the waters along 10N. Light to gentle NE winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle westerly winds are south of the monsoon trough, except between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador where moderate southerly winds prevail. Seas are in the 7-8 ft range over the waters between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Light to gentle winds over the offshore waters N of 03N will continue through Sun morning before increasing modestly. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds over the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters will prevail into Sun before diminishing slightly. Long- period SW swell will prevail over the waters between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador through Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see special features section for the possibility of tropical cyclogenesis associated with a couple of areas of low pressure. Elsewhere, a ridge of high pressure prevails over the waters north of 20N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds from 09N to 22N. Light to gentle winds are within the ridge N of 22N and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. A small area of seas to 8 ft prevail north of the monsoon trough west of 135W to near 15N. Elsewhere, seas are in the 4-7 ft range. SW swell has propagated into the waters south of the equator, with seas in the 6-8 ft range. $$ Ramos