000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111938 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jun 11 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad area of low pressure is centered a couple hundred miles south-southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted north of 10N between 94W and 98W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the system drifts north-northeastward. There is a medium chance for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico through early next week. See products from your local meteorological service for more information. A 1009 mb low near 11N117W is embedded within the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 150 nm west and 60 nm east semicircles. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some gradual development over the next few days. However, a tropical depression could form by early next week while the system moves slowly westward. There is a low probability of development of this feature within the next 48 hours, and a medium probability of development within the next 5 days. Please see the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook at for more information on the potential for tropical cyclogenesis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 09N84W to 13N91W to a 1007 mb low pressure centered near 13N97W to 13N112W to a 1009 mb low pressure centered near 11N119W to 08N136W. The ITCZ continues from 08N136W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 11N between 85W and 92W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 19N between 94W and 108W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 117W and 125W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 127W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see special features section above for more on the potential for tropical cyclone formation south of Mexico. Low pressure is centered near 12N98W. Fresh to strong winds are noted around this low. A surface ridge extends west of the Baja California peninsula. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a surface trough over the Gulf of California is supporting fresh to locally strong winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere across the open waters off Mexico as well as over the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 8-9 ft range west of the Baja California peninsula, 5-7 ft south of Mexico, 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California, and 4-5 ft over the remainder of the open waters off Mexico. Active convection is covering the waters south of Mexico in association broad area of low pressure centered couple hundred miles south of Puerto Angel, Mexico. There is the potential for this low to develop into tropical depression this weekend while the system drifts north- northeastward. Mariners can expect areas of heavy rainfall in association with this low. Elsewhere, high pressure west of the area will support moderate to fresh NW winds, and seas to 8 ft, off Baja California through Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough extends across the waters along 10N. Light to gentle NE winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle westerly winds are south of the monsoon trough, except between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador where moderate southerly winds prevail. Seas are in the 7-8 ft range over the waters between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Light to gentle winds over the offshore waters N of 03N will continue through Sun morning before increasing modestly. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds over the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters will prevail into Sun before diminishing slightly. Long- period SW swell will prevail over the waters between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador through Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see special features section for the possibility of tropical cyclogenesis associated with a couple of areas of low pressure. Elsewhere, a ridge of high pressure prevails over the waters north of 20N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds from 09N to 22N. Light to gentle winds are within the ridge N of 22N and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. A small area of seas to 8 ft prevail north of the ITCZ to near 15N. Elsewhere, seas are in the 4-7 ft range. SW swell has propagated into the waters south of the equator, with seas in the 6-8 ft range. $$ AL