000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110915 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jun 11 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0810 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is from 01N to 14N with axis near 92W, moving at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 13N between 90W and 98W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 12N96W to a 1012 mb low pressure centered near 11N117W to 08N126W. The ITCZ continues from 08N127W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 12N between 103W and 115W, and from 05N to 12N west of 126W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is within 240 nm NW quadrant of low center. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to locally strong NW winds prevail off Baja California Norte and extend to Puerto Magdalena with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh NW winds, and seas to 7 ft, are noted on the offshore waters from Puerto Magdalena to Cabo San Lucas. High pressure west of the area will support these conditions off the Baja California coast through Sun. Gentle to moderate NW winds with seas to 3 ft are across the Gulf of California. Farther south, light to gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas persist off SW Mexico from Jalisco to Guerrero. Gentle to moderate easterly winds are in the Oaxaca and Chiapas adjacent waters with seas to 5 ft. Otherwise, a broad area of low pressure has developed a couple hundred miles south-southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Although shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization this evening, environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the system drifts north-northeastward. Heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico through early next week. See products from your local meteorological service for more information. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle variable winds with seas to 4 ft are over the offshore waters N of 03N. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds with seas to 7 ft are over the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Small clusters of showers and thunderstorms are noted over Nicaragua, Panama and El Salvador adjacent waters. Long- period SW swell will reach the Ecuadorian waters today, supporting seas to 9 ft in that region. A broad area of low pressure has developed a couple hundred miles south-southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Although shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization this evening, environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the system drifts north-northeastward. Heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1012 mb low near 11N117W, which is embedded within the monsoon trough is supporting numerous moderate isolated strong convection within 240 nm NW quadrant of the low center. Moderate to fresh winds are within 210 nm N semicircle and SE quadrant of the low with seas to 7 ft. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some gradual development over the next few days. However, a tropical depression could form by early next week while the system moves slowly westward. There is a low probability of development of this feature within the next 48 hours, and a medium probability of development within the next 5 days. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more information on the potential for tropical cyclogenesis. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted from 11N to 15N west of 128W, with seas of 8 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh NE winds persist elsewhere from 15N to 26N and west of 115W with 5 to 7 ft seas. $$ Ramos