000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110401
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jun 11 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0420 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is from 01N to 14N with axis near 91W, moving at
5 kt. There is no convection associated with the wave at this
time.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 12N92W to a 1009 mb low
pressure centered near 11N117W to 09N122W. The ITCZ continues 
from 09N123W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 
08N to 13N between 100W and 113W, and from 08N to 12N west of 
132W. Scattered moderate convection associated with the low is
from 08N to 14N between 114W and 122W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong NW winds prevail off Baja California Norte and
extend to Punta Abreojos with seas in the 7 to 9 ft range. 
Moderate to fresh NW winds, and seas of 6 to 8 ft, are noted on
the offshore waters from San Juanico to Cabo San Lucas. High 
pressure west of the area will support these conditions off the 
Baja California coast through Sat. 

Gentle to moderate NW winds with seas to 3 ft are across the 
Gulf of California. Farther south, light to gentle breezes and 3
to 5 ft seas persist off SW Mexico from Jalisco to Guerrero.
Gentle to moderate easterly winds are in the Oaxaca and Chiapas
adjacent waters with seas to 4 ft.  

Otherwise, a broad trough of low pressure located a couple 
hundred miles south-southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico, is 
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This 
activity has become a little more concentrated today and 
environmental conditions appear conducive for additional 
development. A tropical depression could form by this weekend 
while the system drifts north-northeastward. Heavy rainfall will 
be possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico 
through early next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle variable winds with seas to 4 ft are over the
offshore waters N of 03N. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds with
seas to 7 ft are over the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore
waters. Small clusters of showers and thunderstorms are noted 
over Nicaragua, Costa Rica and northern Panama adjacent waters. 
Long-period SW swell will reach the Ecuadorian waters by Fri,
supporting seas to 9 ft in that region.

A broad trough of low pressure located a couple hundred miles 
south-southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico, is producing a large area 
of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for development and a tropical depression could form 
by this weekend while the system drifts north-northeastward. 
Heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of Central America 
and southern Mexico through early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1009 mb low near 11N117W, which is embedded within the monsoon
trough, continues to generate scattered moderate convection in
its vicinity from 08N to 14N between 114W and 122W. Moderate to
fresh winds are within 210 nm N semicircle and SE quadrant of the
low with seas to 7 ft. Environmental conditions appear favorable
for some gradual development over the next few days, and a 
tropical depression could form by early next week while the 
system moves slowly westward. There is a low probability of 
development of this feature within the next 48 hours, and a 
medium probability of development within the next 5 days. Please
see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more information on 
the potential for tropical cyclogenesis. 

Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted from 11N 
to 15N west of 128W, with seas of 8 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh 
NE winds persist elsewhere from 15N to 26N and west of 115W with 
5 to 7 ft seas.

$$
Ramos