000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110307
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jun 11 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0420 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is from 01N to 14N with axis near 91W, moving at
5 kt. There is no convection associated with the wave at this
time.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 12N92W to a 1009 mb low
pressure centered near 11N117W to 09N122W. The ITCZ continues 
from 09N123W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 
08N to 13N between 100W and 113W, and from 08N to 12N west of 
132W. Scattered moderate convection associated with the low is
from 08N to 14N between 114W and 122W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong NW winds prevail off Baja California Norte with 
seas of 7 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh NW winds, and seas of 6 to 8
ft, are noted off Baja California Sur. Light to gentle winds and
slight seas persist across the Gulf of California. Forest and 
agricultural fires from Jalisco to Sinaloa may be supporting 
areas of moderate smoke and haze over adjacent offshore waters. 
Farther south, light to gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas persist
off southern Mexico. Divergence aloft on the southeast side of 
an upper trough is supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms 
in the offshore waters of Chiapas, Oaxaca and Guerrero.

For the forecast, A trough of low pressure is located several 
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. 
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some gradual 
development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or
early next week while the system drifts generally northward. 
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could occur over 
portions of Central America and southern Mexico late this week 
and into early next week. See products from your local 
meteorological service for more information. Elsewhere, high 
pressure west of the area will support moderate to fresh NW winds
off Baja California and building seas in NW swell off the Baja 
California coast north of Cabo San Lazaro into Sat. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light NE winds, and seas of 3-4 ft, prevail north of 10N. Gentle
to moderate W to SW breezes, and seas of 4-6 ft. Clusters of 
showers and thunderstorms are noted mainly off Guatemala and 
Nicaragua. 

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is located 
several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. 
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some gradual 
development over this area, and a tropical depression could form
this weekend while the system drifts generally northward. 
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could occur over 
portions of Central America and southern Mexico late this week 
and into the weekend. See products from your local meteorological
service for more information. Elsewhere, light and variable 
winds will prevail north of 10N, with gentle to moderate SW winds
south of 10N. A new round of long- period SW swell will reach 
Ecuadorian waters by Fri.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1010 mb area of low pressure persists near 11N115W is embedded
within the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is within 240 nm west and 120 nm east of the low. 
Moderate to fresh winds are noted SE of the low, with gentle to 
moderate winds elsewhere around the low. Some gradual 
development is possible over the next few days as the system 
moves slowly westward. There is a low probability of development
of this feature within the next 48 hours, and a medium
probability of development within the next five days. Please see
the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more information on the
potential for tropical cyclogenesis. 

Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted from 10N 
to 15N west of 135W, with seas of 8 to 9 ft in this area. 
Moderate to fresh NE winds persist elsewhere north of the ITCZ
and monsoon trough and west of 120W with 5 to 7 ft seas. 
Gentle to moderate SE winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are noted south
of the ITCZ, while gentle to moderate SW winds are noted south of
the monsoon trough.

Looking ahead, lowering pressure off Central America will 
support increased W to SW winds and building seas over the 
waters mainly from 05N to 15N between 95W and 115W by late in the
week.

$$
Ramos