182 AXPZ20 KNHC 101441 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jun 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1440 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of tropical wave is near 90/91W north of 03N. Scattered moderate convection is observed N of 10N within 210 nm west of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 1010 mb low pressure centered near 12N115W to 09N125W. The ITCZ continues from 09N125W to 08N130W to 09N135W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 81W and 90W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 18N between 90W and 104W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 105W and 112W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 114W and 120W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 138W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong NW winds prevail off Baja California Norte with seas to 5 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh NW winds are noted off Baja California Sur. Light to gentle winds and slight seas persist across the Gulf of California. Forest and agricultural fires from Jalisco to Sinaloa may be supporting areas of moderate smoke and haze over adjacent offshore waters. Farther south, light to gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas persist off southern Mexico. Divergence aloft on the southeast side of an upper trough is supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms in the offshore waters of Chiapas, Oaxaca and Guerrero. For the forecast, A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for some gradual development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week while the system drifts generally northward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could occur over portions of Central America and southern Mexico late this week and into early next week. See products from your local meteorological service for more information. Elsewhere, high pressure west of the area will support moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California and building seas in NW swell off the Baja California coast north of Cabo San Lazaro into Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light NE winds prevail north of 10N, with light to gentle W to SW breezes south of 10N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in SW swell in most areas. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are noted mainly off Guatemala and Nicaragua. For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form a couple of hundred miles south of the coasts of southern Mexico and Guatemala during the next day or two. Environmental conditions appear favorable for some gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form this weekend while the system drifts generally northward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could occur over portions of Central America and southern Mexico late this week and into the weekend. See products from your local meteorological service for more information. Elsewhere, light and variable winds will prevail north of 10N, with gentle to moderate SW winds south of 10N. A new round of long- period SW swell will reach Ecuadorian waters by Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1010 mb area of low pressure persists near 12N115W, embedded within the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 210 nm west and 90 nm east of the low. Gentle to moderate winds surround the low. Some gradual development is possible over the next few days as the system moves slowly westward. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted from 10N to 15N west of 135W, with seas of 8 to 9 ft in this area. Moderate to fresh NE winds persist elsewhere north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 120W with 5 to 7 ft seas. Gentle to moderate SE winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are noted south of the ITCZ, while gentle to moderate SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. Looking ahead, lowering pressure off Central America will support increased W to SW winds and building seas over the waters mainly from 05N to 15N between 95W and 115W by late in the week. $$ AL