433 AXPZ20 KNHC 100906 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Jun 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 89W north of 03N into eastern El Salvador. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 11N to 13N between 86W and 88W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 108W from 03N to 15N. Scattered to numerous moderate is evident from 10N to 12N between 107W and 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 1010 mb low pressure centered near 12N115W to 09N125W. The ITCZ continues from 09N125W to 08N130W to 09N135W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Wave section, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection noted from 12N to 16N between 90W and 102W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 10N to 11N between 112W and 117W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent satellite derived data confirmed fresh to strong NW winds off Baja California with seas to 5 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh NW winds are noted elsewhere off Baja California. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas persist across the Gulf of California. Forest and agricultural fires from Jalisco to Sinaloa may be supporting areas of moderate smoke and haze over adjacent offshore waters. Farther south, light to gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas persist off southern Mexico. Divergence aloft on the southeast side of an upper trough is supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms in the offshore waters of Chiapas, Oaxaca and Guerrero. For the forecast, building high pressure west of the area will support moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California and building seas in NW swell off the Baja California coast north of Cabo San Lazaro into Sat. Light to gentle breezes will persist off southern Mexico, with moderate SW swell through Fri, then increasing SW swell through early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough has lifted northward to 11.5N across the waters east of 95W. This pattern is supporting moderate SE to E winds off El Salvador and Guatemala. Light to gentle W to SW breezes are evident elsewhere south of 11.5N and offshore Central America. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in SW swell in most areas. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are noted mainly off Guatemala and Nicaragua. For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form a couple of hundred miles south of the coasts of southern Mexico and Guatemala during the next day or two. Environmental conditions appear favorable for some gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form this weekend while the system drifts generally northward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could occur over portions of Central America and southern Mexico late this week and into the weekend. See products from your local meteorological service for more information. Elsewhere, farther south, a new round of large, long-period SW swell will reach Ecuadorian waters by Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1010 mb area of low pressure persists near 12N115W along the monsoon trough. Thunderstorms are noted within 180 nm in the west and southeast quadrants of the low. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh winds within 90 nm on the northwest quadrant of the low. A concurrent altimeter satellite pass showed seas to about six feet. This low will gradually dissipate over the next couple of days as it drifts west. Elsewhere, recent scatterometer satellite data confirmed fresh to strong NW winds mainly from 10N to 15N west of 135W, on the northwest side of a surface trough reaching from 05N to 12N along roughly 137W/138W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident west of this surface trough. Moderate to fresh NE winds persist elsewhere north of 10N and west of 120W with 5 to 7 ft seas. Moderate SE winds are noted south of 10N with 4 to 6 ft seas, except for moderate to fresh SE winds from 05N to 10N east of 110W. Looking ahead, lowering pressure off Central America will support increased W to SW winds and building seas over the waters mainly from 05N to 15N between 95W and 115W by late in the week. $$ Christensen