041 AXPZ20 KNHC 100337 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jun 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 88W north of 03N into eastern El Salvador. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is evident within 90 nm of the coast from northwest Nicaragua to eastern El Salvador. A tropical wave is analyzed along 107W from 03N to 15N. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is evident from 08N to 10N between 107W and 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 1010 mb low pressure centered near 12N114W to 10N120W. The ITCZ continues from 10N120W to 09N133W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Wave section, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection noted from 14N to 15N between 95W and 98W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 08N to 12N between 95W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure west of the area is supporting fresh NW winds off Baja California, possibly reaching 25 kt near the coast, north of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas are mainly 5 to 8 ft in subsiding NW swell, with the highest seas north of 30N. Moderate to fresh NW winds are noted elsewhere off Baja California. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas persist across the Gulf of California. Forest and agricultural fires from Jalisco to Sinaloa may be supporting areas of moderate smoke and haze over adjacent offshore waters. Farther south, light to gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas persist off southern Mexico. Divergence aloft on the southeast side of an upper trough is supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms off Chiapas and Oaxaca. For the forecast, building high pressure west of the area will support moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California and building seas in NW swell off the Baja California coast north of Cabo San Lazaro into Sat. Light to gentle breezes will persist off southern Mexico, with moderate SW swell through Fri, then increasing SW swell through early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough has lifted northward to 11.5N across the waters east of 95W. This pattern is supporting moderate SE to E winds off El Salvador and Guatemala. Light to gentle W to SW breezes are evident elsewhere south of 11.5N and offshore Central America. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in SW swell in most areas. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form a couple of hundred miles south of the coasts of southern Mexico and Guatemala during the next day or two. Environmental conditions appear favorable for some gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form this weekend while the system drifts generally northward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could occur over portions of Central America and southern Mexico late this week and into the weekend. See products from your local meteorological service for more information. Elsewhere, farther south, a new round of large, long-period SW swell will reach Ecuadorian waters by Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1010 mb area of low pressure persists near 12N114W along the monsoon trough. Thunderstorms are noted north of the low from 14N to 16N between 110W and 115W, with additional showers evident within 300 nm south of the low pressure area. Recent scatterometer satellite data confirmed fresh to strong NW winds mainly from 10n to 15N west of 135W, on the northwest side of a surface trough reaching from 05N to 12N along roughly 137W/138W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident west of this surface trough. Moderate to fresh NE winds persist elsewhere north of 10N and west of 120W with 5 to 7 ft seas. Moderate SE winds are noted south of 10N with 4 to 6 ft seas, except for moderate to fresh SE winds from 05N to 10N east of 110W. Looking ahead, lowering pressure off Central America will support increased W to SW winds and building seas over the waters mainly from 05N to 15N between 95W and 115W by late in the week. $$ Christensen