000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092152 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jun 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 86W-87W extending from the Gulf of Honduras across Central America and into the eastern Pacific. Clusters of scattered to numerous diurnal convection are seen on both sides of the wave axis across Central America, while scattered moderate to strong convection is along and south of the monsoon trough across waters south of Costa Rica and western Panama. A tropical wave is analyzed along 105W south of 15N. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection described below is along and south of the monsoon trough to 07N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N75W to 08N83W to 11N101W to 1010 mb low pressure near 12.5N113W to 10N121W. The ITCZ reaches from 10N121W to 10.5N134W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection noted from 05N to 09N between 78W and 87W. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 92W and 117W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N west of 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Generally moderate Nly winds persist over the offshore waters of Baja California, except fresh winds within 60 nm of the coast from Punta Eugenia northward. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in lingering NW swell, with seas to 8 ft offshore of Baja Norte and north of 30N. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas persist across the Gulf of California. Forest and agricultural fires from Jalisco to Sinaloa may be supporting areas of moderate smoke and haze over adjacent offshore waters. Farther south, light to gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas persist off southern Mexico. Building high pressure west of the area will support freshening NW to N winds off of Baja California north of Cabo Lazaro starting tonight and then diminish Sat. Seas will build 7 to 9 ft during this time. Light to gentle breeze will persist off southern Mexico, with moderate SW swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough has lifted northward to 11.5N across the waters east of 95W. This pattern is supporting moderate SE to E winds off El Salvador and Guatemala. Light to gentle W to SW breezes are evident elsewhere south of 11.5N and offshore Central America. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in SW swell in most areas. A broad area of low pressure is beginning to develop across the region along about 11.5N, from the SW Caribbean westward to south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions appear favorable for some gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week or over the weekend as the system drifts generally northward. Regardless of development, this system will produce active weather across the region throughout the week and into the weekend, with heavy rainfall possible over Central America and southern Mexico. See products from your local meteorological service for more information. Elsewhere, farther south, a new round of large, long-period SW swell will reach Ecuadorian waters early Fri and move into the remaining offshore waters Fri night through Sat. Seas will increase to 5 to 8 ft during this time. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Ridging dominates the waters north of 20N west of 115W, maintaining gentle to moderate breezes north of 24N and 5 to 7 ft seas in NW swell. South of the ridge, a tighter pressure gradient is found between 08N and 20N and to the west of 132W. NE winds around 20 kt prevail there this afternoon, with seas of 7 to 9 ft in mixed swell. Winds will gradually diminish through Thu night, leading seas to subside to less than 8 ft by Fri night. A broad upper trough extends roughly from 30N130W to 17N144W. Divergence aloft on the southeast side of this upper trough is supporting persistent deep convection near a weak surface trough from 06N to 12N between 132W and 137W. The trough is forecast to shift west of 140W through Thu. A small and elongated area of low pressure persists, centered on 1010 mb low pressure near 12.5N113W. Thunderstorms persist along the monsoon trough to the SW of this low, and recent satellite imagery suggests the surface low is shifting SW towards the convection. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted from 11N to 19N west of 110W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident east of 110W. Looking ahead, lowering pressure off Central America will support increased W to SW winds and building seas over the waters mainly from 05N to 15N between 95W and 115W by late in the week. $$ Stripling