000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090406 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jun 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave crosses western Panama with axis along 83W north of 03N. No significant convection is evident near this tropical wave. A tropical wave is along 103W from 04N to 15N. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 07N to 09N between 100W and 102W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 1011 mb low pressure near 10N92W to 1011 mb low pressure near 13N112W to 10N130W. The ITCZ reaches from 08N134W to beyond 07N140W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 12N to 14N between 103W and 106W, and from 12N to 14N between 113W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 05N to 07N between 135W and 140W. Clusters of strong convection are also evident off within 90 nm off the coasts of Chiapas, and off western Oaxaca in southern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Generally moderate NW winds persist over the offshore waters of Baja California, except for a few areas of 20 kt winds funnelling along the coast. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in lingering NW swell. Light to gentle breezes and slight seas persist across the Gulf of California. Forest and agricultural fires from Jalisco to Sinaloa may be supporting areas of moderate smoke and haze over adjacent offshore waters. Farther south, light to gentle breezes and 3 to 4 ft seas persist off southern Mexico. For the forecast, winds will increase to moderate to fresh off Baja California beginning on Wed as high pressure builds in the wake of a weak trough moving across the region. NW swell will reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia Wed night, building seas to 8 ft. This swell event will propagate southward with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range north of Cabo San Lazaro by Thu evening. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the central and southern parts of the Gulf of California while light and variable winds are expected across the northern part of the Gulf through Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 1011 mb low pressure was analyzed along the monsoon trough well off the coast of El Salvador near 10N92W. This pattern is supporting moderate SE winds off El Salvador and Guatemala. Light to gentle SW breezes are evident elsewhere off Central America. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in SW swell in most areas. For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form a couple of hundred miles south of the coasts of southern Mexico, El Salvador, and Guatemala by Thursday. Environmental conditions appear favorable for some gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week or over the weekend as the system drifts generally northward. Regardless of development, this system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and southern Mexico later this week and into the weekend. See products from your local meteorological service for more information. Elsewhere, farther south, a new round of large, long-period SW swell will reach Ecuadorian waters by Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak trough is analyzed within the ITCZ and extends from 13N131W to 08N133W. This trough is supported by a broad upper trough to its northwest, and will dampen out as it moves westward over the next couple of days. A 1011 mb low is within the monsoon trough near 10N91W and another 1011 mb low is centered near 13N112W. For the forecast, a ridge will build across the northern forecast waters during the next few days. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ will result in moderate to locally fresh trade winds roughly N of the ITCZ to about 20N and W of 125W through at least Fri, with seas of 5 to 8 ft. $$ Christensen