000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082107 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jun 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2050 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave crosses western Panama with axis along 82W north of 03N. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern end of the wave axis. A tropical wave is along 102W from 04N to 15N. Convection is limited near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to a 1011 mb low pressure near 10N91W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 12N111.5W to 10N122W. The ITCZ continues from 10N122W to 07N140W. In addition to the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 10N to 14N between 93W and 98W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is from 10N to 12N between 104W and 107W. Another cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is along the coast of Guerrero, just W of Acapulco, Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing mainly moderate NW winds based on recent scatterometer data. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in NW swell. The pressure gradient is forecast to increase across the area between the ridge to the W and lower pressures over north-central Mexico. This will bring an increase in winds. Fresh to strong winds are expected N of Cabo San Lazaro by Wed night into Thu. Additional pulses of NW swell will reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia Wed night, building seas to 8 ft. This swell event will propagate southward with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range N of Cabo San Lazaro by Thu evening. At that time, the fresh to strong NW winds are forecast to dominate much of the waters W of the Baja California peninsula. Gulf of California: Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the central and southern parts of the Gulf of California while light and variable winds are expected across the northern part of the Gulf through Sat. Seas will subside to 3 ft or less in the northern part of the Gulf later today. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A broad area of low pressure is expected to form a couple of hundred miles south of the coasts of southern Mexico, El Salvador, and Guatemala by Thursday. Environmental conditions appear favorable for some gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week or over the weekend as the system drifts generally northward. Regardless of development, this system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and southern Mexico later this week and into the weekend. See products from your local meteorological service for more information. The Tropical Weather Outlook states that this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. See products from your local meteorological service for more information. Currently, scattered moderate convection is noted N of 04N E of 85W and is mainly associated with a tropical wave that crosses western Panama. Moderate to fresh winds are noted S of the monsoon trough E of 100W while light to gentle winds persist north of the monsoon trough. Farther south, gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft across the offshore waters. Large swell from the Southern Hemisphere are expected to reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by Fri, building seas to 7-8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge will build across the northern forecast waters during the next few days. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ will result in moderate to locally fresh trade winds roughly N of the ITCZ to about 20N and W of 125W through at least Fri, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. A well defined swirl of low clouds remains associated with the low previously located south of Socorro Island. The swirl of low clouds related to the remnants of former tropical cyclone Blanca is weakening. A weak trough is analyzed within the ITCZ and extends from 13N131W to 08N133W. This trough will move westward over the next couple of days. A 1011 mb lowis within the monsoon trough near 10N91W. $$ GR