000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081552
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jun 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave crosses western Panama with axis along 81W north
of 03N. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern end of
the wave axis.

A tropical wave is along 101W from 04N to 15N. Scattered moderate
convection is evident from 09N to 15N between 100W and 102W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia to 09N90W to 
1010 mb low pressure centered near 12N111W to 10N122W. The ITCZ 
continues from 10N122W to 07N140W. In addition to the convection
associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is observed from 07N to 13N between 92W and 
97W. Similar convection is from 09N to 11N between 102W and 105W,
and from 12N to 14N between 113W and 115W. Scatterred moderate 
convection is from 05N to 10N W of 130W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong SW winds may be pulsing into the northern Gulf 
of California this morning due to a tight pressure gradient 
between high pressure west of the region and low pressure over 
the lower Colorado River. Winds and seas will diminish through
the morning as the low pressure weakens. Light breezes and 
slight seas are noted elsewhere over the Gulf of California. 
Moderate NW winds are noted off Baja California, with 6 to 8 ft 
seas in NW swell north of Punta Eugenia, and 4 to 6 ft seas off 
Baja California Sur. Farther south, light to gentle breezes 
persist off southern Mexico with 4 to 6 ft seas primarily in SW 
swell.

For the forecast, the NW swell off Baja California Norte will
subside through tonight. However, winds will increase to 
moderate to fresh off Baja California beginning on Wed as high
pressure builds in the wake of a weak trough moving across the
region. Additional pulses of NW swell will reach the waters 
north of Punta Eugenia Wed night through Fri building seas to 8 
ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A broad trough of low pressure is expected to form a couple of 
hundred miles south of the coasts of southern Mexico, El Salvador, 
and Guatemala in a day or two. Environmental conditions appear 
favorable for some development thereafter, and a tropical depression
could form by the end of the week as the system drifts northwestward
or northward. Regardless of development, this system could produce
heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and southern Mexico
later this week and into the weekend. The Tropical Weather Outlook
states that this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone 
formation through 5 days. See products from your local meteorological
service for more information. 

Currently, scattered moderate convection is noted N of 04N E of
84W and is mainly associated with a tropical wave that crosses
western Panama. Moderate to fresh winds are noted S of the 
monsoon trough E of 90W. Light to gentle breezes persist north 
of the monsoon trough in the offshore waters from Nicaragua to 
Guatemala. Farther south, gentle to moderate southerly winds
prevail. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft across the offshore waters.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Showers and thunderstorms continue to become less organized in 
association with a broad area of low pressure located near 12N111W.
This system is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity
well west of its center. Significant development of this system 
is not expected due to strong upper-level winds and dry air in 
the surrounding environment. The disturbance is forecast to move 
slowly west-southwestward during the next couple of days. 

Visible satellite imagery is still showing a well defined swirl 
of low clouds near 14N125W associated with the remnants of former
tropical cyclone Blanca. 

Elsewhere a weak ridge dominates the waters north of 20N and west 
of 115W, supporting gentle to moderate trade winds across the 
region. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds can be expected north of
the ITCZ west of 125W through most of the week, with seas in the
6 to 7 ft range. 

$$
GR