000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080904
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jun 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 80W north of 05N through central Panama.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from
03N to 05N east of 80W.

A tropical wave is along 100W from 05N to 15N. Scattered 
moderate convection is evident from 07N to 09N between 97W and 
102W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 13N103W to 1011 mb low
pressure centered near 13N111W to 10N110W. The ITCZ continues 
from 10N110W to 07N140W. In addition to the convection described
in near the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection
is observed from 04N to 09N between 81W and 88W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is also observed off the
coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala from 09N to 13N east of 92W.
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 05N to 08N
between 85W and 93W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong SW winds may be pulsing into the northern Gulf 
of California this morning due to a tight pressure gradient 
between high pressure west of the region and low pressure over 
the lower Colorado River. Winds and seas will diminish through
the morning as the low pressure weakens. Light breezes and 
slight seas are noted elsewhere over the Gulf of California. 
Moderate NW winds are noted off Baja California, with 6 to 8 ft 
seas in NW swell north of Punta Eugenia, and 4 to 6 ft seas off 
Baja California Sur. Farther south, light to gentle breezes 
persist off southern Mexico with 4 to 6 ft seas primarily in SW 
swell.

For the forecast, the NW swell off Baja California Norte will
subside through tonight. However, winds will increase to 
moderate to fresh off Baja California beginning on Wed as high
pressure builds in the wake of a weak trough moving across the
region. Additional pulses of NW swell will reach the waters 
north of Punta Eugenia Wed night into Fri building seas to 8 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A sharp upper trough reaches across the western Caribbean to 
Costa Rica and Panama. This pattern along with the movement of
tropical waves in the lower to middle levels of the atmosphere is  
is helping to lower surface pressure along the monsoon trough.
This in turn is resulting moderate to fresh SW flow south of the
monsoon trough and into the waters off Costa Rica and western 
Panama, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Light to gentle breezes along with 
3 to 5 ft seas persist north of the monsoon trough in the 
offshore waters from Nicaragua to Guatemala. This pattern is also
supporting clusters of coastal showers and thunderstorm off 
off Costa Rica and El Salvador. Farther south, moderate SW winds
and 5 to 6 ft seas persist in Ecuadorian and Colombian waters.

For the forecast, a broad trough of low pressure is expected to 
form a couple of hundred miles south of the coasts of southern 
Mexico, El Salvador, and Guatemala in a day or two. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for some development thereafter, and
a tropical depression could form by the end of the week as the 
system moves slowly northwestward or northward. Regardless of 
development, this system could produce heavy rainfall over 
portions of Central America and southern Mexico later this week 
and into the weekend. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook says 
this low as a medium chance for developing into a tropical 
depression over the next five days. See products from your local 
meteorological service for more information about local impacts.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Showers and thunderstorms continue to become less organized in 
association with a broad area of low pressure located near
13N111W. The showers and thunderstorms are sheared well to the
west of the exposed low level center. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass indicated winds to 25 kt within 90 nm on the
northwest semicircle of this low. Environmental conditions are 
expected to become increasingly unfavorable, and development of 
this system is now unlikely. The low is forecast to dissipate as
it moves slowly west- southwestward during the next couple of 
days.

An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated the remnant 
low of what was Blanca has reformed as a weak 1014 mb low
pressure area near 16N123W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted 
near this low, with no showers or thunderstorms. The low is
expected to dissipate through mid week.

Elsewhere a weak ridge dominates the waters north of 20N and west 
of 115W, supporting gentle to moderate trade winds across the 
region. Seas of 8-9 ft in NW swell, are propagating across the 
northern forecast waters, particularly N of 27N between 118W and 
125W. These seas will subside to less than 8 ft through tonight.
Moderate to fresh E to NE winds can be expected north of the 
ITCZ west of 125W through most of the week, with seas in the 6 to
7 ft range. Looking ahead, SW winds are expected to increase 
along with building seas east of 110W, associated with lower 
pressure developing in that area off northern Central America.

$$
Christensen