000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080346
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jun 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 98W from 05N to 15N. Scattered moderate
convection is evident from 06N to 10N between 97W and 103W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N79W to 08N85W to 1011 mb low
pressure centered near 13N111W to 1014 mb low pressure near
16N122W. The ITCZ extends from 14N125W to 07N140W. In addition to the
convection described in near the tropical wave, scattered 
moderate convection is observed from 04N to 09N between 81W and 
88W. Scattered moderate convection is also observed from 06N to
08N between 130W and 135W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh SW winds are pulsing into the northern Gulf of
California due to a tight pressure gradient between high 
pressure west of the region and low pressure over the lower 
Colorado River. Light breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere
over the Gulf of California. Moderate NW winds are noted off 
Baja California, with 5 to 7 ft seas in NW swell north of Punta 
Eugenia, and 4 to 6 ft seas off Baja California Sur. Farther 
south, light to gentle breezes persist off southern Mexico with 4
to 6 ft seas primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong SW gap winds over the 
northern Gulf of California will diminish through early Tue as
the low pressure weakens over the lower Colorado River valley. 
Winds will increase to moderate to fresh off Baja California 
beginning on Wed as the pressure gradient tightens between a 
ridge over the offshore waters of the Baja California peninsula 
and lower pressure across north- central Mexico. Additional 
pulses of NW swell will reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia 
Wed night into Thu building seas to 8 ft. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A sharp upper trough reaches across the western Caribbean to 
Costa Rica and Panama. This pattern along with the movement of
tropical waves in the lower to middle levels of the atmosphere is  
is helping to lower surface pressure along the monsoon trough.
This in turn is resulting moderate to fresh SW flow south of the
monsoon trough and into the waters off Costa Rica and western 
Panama, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Light to gentle breezes along with 
3 to 5 ft seas persist north of the monsoon trough in the 
offshore waters from Nicaragua to Guatemala. This pattern is also
supporting clusters of coastal showers and thunderstorm off 
off Costa Rica and El Salvador. Farther south, moderate SW winds
and 5 to 6 ft seas persist in Ecuadorian and Colombian waters.

For the forecast, a broad trough of low pressure is expected to 
form a couple of hundred miles south of the coasts of southern 
Mexico, El Salvador, and Guatemala in a day or two. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for some development thereafter, and
a tropical depression could form by the end of the week as the 
system moves slowly northwestward or northward. Regardless of 
development, this system could produce heavy rainfall over 
portions of Central America and southern Mexico later this week 
and into the weekend. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook says 
this low as a medium chance for developing into a tropical 
depression over the next five days. See products from your local 
meteorological service for more information about local impacts.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Showers and thunderstorms continue to become less organized in 
association with a broad area of low pressure located near
13N110W. The showers and thunderstorms are sheared well to the
west of the exposed low level center. Environmental conditions 
are expected to become increasingly unfavorable, and development 
of this system is now unlikely. The disturbance is forecast to 
move slowly west- southwestward during the next couple of days. 

A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated the remnant low 
of what was Blanca has reformed near 16N122W. Gentle to moderate
winds are noted near this low, with no showers or thunderstorms. 

Elsewhere a weak ridge dominates the waters north of 20N and west 
of 115W, supporting gentle to moderate trade winds across the 
region. Seas of 8-9 ft in NW swell, are propagating across the 
northern forecast waters, particularly N of 27N between 118W and 
125W. These seas will subside to less than 8 ft through early Tue.
Moderate to fresh E to NE winds can be expected north of the 
ITCZ west of 125W through most of the week, with seas in the 6 to
7 ft range. Looking ahead, SW winds are expected to increase
along with building seas east of 110W, associated with lower
pressure developing in that area off northern Central America.

$$
Christensen