000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072137 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jun 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... Satellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure located about 350 nm south of Socorro Island has developed a well-defined center. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is not well-organized. An area of moderate convection is noted W of the center and mainly from 12N to 14N between 112W and 114W. A scatterometer pass provided observations of fresh to strong winds within about 90 nm W semicircle of center. Environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly unfavorable beginning tonight, and the chances of a short-lived tropical depression forming are decreasing. The system is forecast to move slowly west-southwestward during the next couple of days. The Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 97W from 05N to 15N. Convection has diminished near the northern end of the wave axis, and now only scattered moderate convection is seen from 12N to 15N between 95W and 98W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough crosses western Panama and continues to 09N88W to 08N93W to a low pressure located near 13N110W to 14N120W. The ITCZ extends from 12N125W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection can be found from 05N to 10N between the coast of Colombia and 88W, and from 06N to 08N between 92W and 103W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 11N to 13N between 92W and 95W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft, except 6 to 8 ft N of Punta Eugenia in NW swell. Farther south, light to gentle breezes persist off southern Mexico with 4 to 6 ft seas primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, winds are forecast to increase to moderate to fresh W of Baja California beginning on Wed as the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge and lower pressure across north-central Mexico. Seas of 5 to 7 ft will prevail, except 7 to 8 ft N of Punta Eugenia Wed night into Thu due to additional pulses of long period NW swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A broad trough of low pressure is expected to form a couple of hundred miles south of the coasts of southern Mexico, El Salvador, and Guatemala in a day or two. Environmental conditions appear favorable for some development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week as the system moves slowly northwestward or northward. Regardless of development, this system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and southern Mexico later this week and into the weekend. The Tropical Weather Outlook states that this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. See products from your local meteorological service for more information. Currently, scattered moderate convection can be found from 05N to 10N between the coast of Colombia and 88W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted S of the monsoon trough E of 90W per scatterometer data. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across the offshore waters of Costa Rica and western Panama due to the fresh SW flow. Light to gentle breezes along with 3 to 5 ft seas persist north of the monsoon trough in the offshore waters from Nicaragua to Guatemala. Farther south, gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the potential for the next tropical cyclone. Visisble satellite imagery is still showing a well defined swirl of low clouds near 16N123W associated with the remnants of former tropical cyclone Blanca. A weak ridge dominates the northern forecast waters, particularly N of 20N W of 115W supporting gentle to moderate trade winds across the region. Seas of 8-9 ft in NW swell, are propagating across the northern forecast waters, particularly N of 27N between 118W and 132W. These seas will subside to less than 8 ft by Tue morning. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds can be expected north of the ITCZ west of 125W through most of the week, with seas in the 6 to 7 ft range. $$ GR