000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071556 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Jun 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure located near 13N110W or about 350 nm south-southeast of Socorro Island. However, the system still lacks a well-defined center, as recent satellite imagery indicates the low-level circulation remains broad and displaced well east of the thunderstorm activity. The disturbance still has the potential to become a short- lived tropical depression today before environmental conditions become less favorable for development by tonight. The system is forecast to move slowly west-southwestward during the next couple of days. Currently, fresh to strong winds are within 75 nm W semicircle of center with seas of 8-10 ft. The Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 96W from 05N to 15N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is near the northern end of the wave axis from 13N to 16N between 94W and 97W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough crosses western Panama and continues to 08N90W to 09N96W to 14N105W to the low pressure in the special features section near 13N110W to 14N120W. The ITCZ extends from 12N125W to beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is evident from 05N to 08N between 77W and 85W, and from 09N to 13N between 88W and 93W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 90W and 102W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh SW winds are pulsing into the northern Gulf of California due to a tight pressure gradient between high pressure west of the region and low pressure over the lower Colorado River. Moderate NW winds are noted off Baja California, with 4 to 6 ft seas, reaching 7 ft near Guadalupe Island where NW swell is approaching. Farther south, light to gentle breezes persist off southern Mexico with 4 to 6 ft seas primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, a mid to upper level low centered off southern California will move across the region through Tue. Surface pressure will lower over the area allowing SW gap winds and seas to increase briefly tonight across the northern Gulf of California. NW swell is now propagating across the waters N of Punta Eugenia building seas to 6-8 ft. This swell event will reach the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro by tonight. Building high pressure in the wake of the trough will support fresh to strong NW winds off Baja California Norte Wed and Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A broad trough of low pressure is expected to form a couple of hundred miles south of the coasts of southern Mexico, El Salvador, and Guatemala in a day or two. Environmental conditions appear favorable for some development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week as the system moves slowly northwestward or northward. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 77W and 85W. This convective activity is mainly affecting western Panama. A surge of SW flow is south of the monsoon trough that currently crosses western Panama. Seas there area in the 4 to 6 ft. Light to gentle breezes along with 3 to 5 ft seas persist north of the monsoon trough in the offshore waters from Nicaragua to Guatemala. Farther south, moderate SW winds and 5 to 6 ft seas persist across the offshore waters of Ecuador and Colombia. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the potential for the next tropical cyclone. A weak ridge dominates the northern forecast waters particularly N of 20N W of 120W supporting gentle to moderate trade winds across the region, with 5 to 7 ft seas in a mix of NW and S swell. For the forecast, NW swell up to 8 to 9 ft entering the waters north of 20N between 120W and 130W will subside into midweek. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds can be expected north of the ITCZ west of 125W through most of the week, with seas in the 6 to 7 ft range. Starting tonight, the low pressure near 13N110W will weaken as it continues to move to the WSW over the next couple of days. Looking ahead, another area of low pressure may from along the monsoon trough off northern Central America by mid week. $$ GR