000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070955 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Jun 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... An area of low pressure located about 550 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce an area of showers and thunderstorms. Recent satellite wind data indicate that the broad circulation is located well east of the thunderstorm activity and lacks a well-defined center. The disturbance still has the potential to become a tropical depression today before environmental conditions become less favorable for development by tonight. The system is forecast to move slowly west- southwestward during the next couple of days. Given the short window and lowering chances for development, the previous gale warning for this low center has been cancelled. Whether or not it develops into a tropical cyclone, fresh to strong winds are possible within 45 nm west semicircle of the low today, with seas to 10 ft. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is from 05N south with axis near 95W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 14N between 93W and 96W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N95W to 14N105W to the low pressure in the special features near 13N110W to 17N120W. The ITCZ extends from 12N125W to beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is evident within 90 nm off the coast of northwest Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 08N to 09N between 88W and 91W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm of the low pressure near 13N110W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh SW winds are pulsing into the northern Gulf of California due to a tight pressure gradient between high pressure west of the region and low pressure over the lower Colorado River. Moderate NW winds are noted off Baja California, with 4 to 6 ft seas, reaching 7 ft near Guadalupe Island where NW swell is approaching. Farther south, light to gentle breezes persist off southern Mexico with 4 to 6 ft seas primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, a mid to upper level low centered off southern California will move across the region through Tue. Surface pressure will lower of the area and allowing SW gap winds and seas to increase briefly tonight across the northern Gulf of California. NW swell is moving into the waters off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro. Building high pressure in the wake of the trough will support fresh to strong NW winds off Baja California Norte Wed and Wed Night. Farther south, fresh N gap winds are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A sharp upper trough reaches across the western Caribbean to Costa Rica and Panama. This pattern along with the movement of tropical waves in the lower to middle levels of the atmosphere is is helping to lower surface pressure along the monsoon trough. This in turn is resulting in a surge of SW flow south of the monsoon trough and into the waters off Costa Rica and western Panama, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Light to gentle breezes along with 3 to 5 ft seas persist north of the monsoon trough in the offshore waters from Nicaragua to Guatemala. This pattern is also supporting clusters of coastal showers and thunderstorm off eastern Panama and northwest Colombia, off Costa Rica, and off El Salvador. Thunderstorms are particularly active off northwest Colombia, where associated heavy rainfall is impacting the coastal plains of northern Choco Department. Farther south, moderate SW winds and 5 to 6 ft seas persist in Ecuadorian and Colombian waters. For the forecast, the lowering pressure along the monsoon trough will allow increased SW flow and building seas off Costa Rica and western Panama to persist through tonight with seas building to 5 to 7 ft. A low pressure center may develop along the monsoon trough off northern Central America by mid week then move west of the area through the latter part of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the potential for the next tropical cyclone. A weak and broad ridge across the waters north of 20N is supporting gentle to moderate trade winds across the region, with 5 to 7 ft seas in a mix of NW and S swell. For the forecast, NW swell up to 8 to 9 ft entering the waters north of 20N between 120W and 130W then will subside into midweek. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds can be expected north of the ITCZ west of 125W through most of the week, with seas in the 6 to 7 ft range. Starting tonight, the low pressure near 13N110W will weaken as it continues to move to the WSW over the next couple of days. Looking ahead, another area of low pressure may from along the monsoon trough off northern Central America by mid week. $$ Christensen