000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070342 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jun 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... Gale Warning: Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure located about 500 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. However, the circulation of the system remains broad and elongated and it still lacks a well-defined center. Development of this system into a short-lived tropical depression is still likely before environmental conditions become less favorable by late Monday. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center of the low. The low pressure area is expected to move slowly westward well south of Mexico during the next few days. Whether or not it develops into a tropical cyclone, gale force winds are possible within 45 nm west semicircle of the low through early Mon, with seas building to 12 ft. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is from 05N south with axis near 93W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 09N between 90W and 95W, or in the area where the tropical wave is interacting with the monsoon trough. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07N91W to the low pressure in the special features near 13N108W to 16N117W. The ITCZ extends from 12N125W to beyond 07N140W. In addition to the convection associated with the tropical wave, and the area of low pressure in the special feature section, scattered moderate convection is evident from 04N to 08N between 85W and 100W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Regional observations around the northern Gulf of California indicate fresh to strong winds persist, associated with low pressure centered over the lower Colorado River valley. Moderate NW winds are noted off Baja California, with 4 to 6 ft seas, reaching 7 ft near Guadalupe Island where NW swell is approaching. Farther south, light to gentle breezes persist off southern Mexico with 4 to 6 ft seas primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong SW gap winds will pulse into the northern Gulf of California through Mon night. Elsewhere, weak ridging will support gentle to moderate winds off Baja California through early next week. Seas will build early in the week off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro due to NW swell. Looking ahead, another trough moving through the region will support fresh NW winds off Baja California by mid week, with fresh to strong winds possible north of Punta Eugenia. Farther south, fresh N gap winds are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo are diminishing, but pulses to 20 kt are still possible through the evening. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh SW to W winds are noted south of the monsoon trough to the equator, with 5 to 7 ft seas light to gentle breezes 3 to 5 ft north of the monsoon trough. Moderate S to SW flow and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted off Ecuador. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active between roughly the equator and the monsoon trough in the convergent SW flow. For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore winds will pulse in the Papagayo region tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, with SW winds increasing to moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the potential for the next tropical cyclone. The remnant low of Blanca is centered near 17N121W with a central pressure of 1013 mb, and is nearly stationary. Scatterometer satellite pass indicated only moderate winds near this low, and seas are likely near 7 ft. There are showers noted within 80 nm of the low. It is expected dissipate in the next 12 to 24 hours. A weak and broad ridge across the waters north of 20N is supporting gentle to moderate trade winds across the open waters outside of Blanca, with 5 to 7 ft seas in a mix of NW and S swell. For the forecast, NW swell up to 8 to 9 ft is entering the waters north of 20N between 120W and 130W from now until Mon, then will subside by midweek. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds can be expected north of the ITCZ west of 125W through most of the week, with seas in the 6 to 7 ft range. The forecast for the remainder of the region depends on the eventual develop and track of the low pressure mentioned in the Special Features section. Even if this low does not develop into a tropical cyclone, it is expected to continue to move westward along roughly 13N, and reach 115W by mid week. At a minimum, mariners can expect fresh to strong winds, possibly rough seas and scattered numerous showers and thunderstorms near this low as it moves westward over the next several days. $$ Christensen