000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062131 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jun 6 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... Gale Warning: Satellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico is producing an organized area of showers and thunderstorms and could be developing a better-defined surface circulation. The system will likely become a tropical depression by tonight while it moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds are expected to become less favorable for additional development in a couple of days. Whether or not it develops, gale force winds are forecast to develop within 45 nm west semicircle of the low tonight, with seas building to 13 ft. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is from 05N south with axis near 91W, moving west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 09N between 89W and 95W, or in the area where the tropical wave is interacting with the monsoon trough. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 10N99W to the low pressure in the special features near 13N108W to 15N114W. Scattered moderate convection from 02N to 08N between 77W and 88W. In addition to the convection associated with the tropical wave, and the area of low pressure in the special feature section, scattered moderate convection is evident from 02N to 08N east of 88W and scattered showers S of 12N between 96W to 106W. ITCZ extends from 12N125W to beyond 07N140W with scattered moderate convection 180 nm to the south. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to locally strong SW gap winds will continue over the northern Gulf of California through Mon night. These winds are related to deep low pressure north of the area in the lower Colorado River valley. Seas will be in the 3 to 6 ft during this period. Light to gentle breezes and slight seas are evident elsewhere over the Gulf of California. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are funneling between a ridge to the west and the coast of Baja California Sur. Gentle to moderate NW breezes are noted elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft seas in a mix of NW and SW swell. Farther south, light to gentle breezes persist off southern Mexico primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong SW gap winds will pulse into the northern Gulf of California through Mon night as a trough moves through the region. Elsewhere, weak ridging will support gentle to moderate winds off Baja California through early next week. Seas will build early in the week off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro due to NW swell. Looking ahead, another trough moving through the region will support fresh NW winds off Baja California by mid week, with fresh to strong winds possible north of Punta Eugenia. Farther south, fresh N gap winds are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Overnight scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate to fresh gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo. An earlier altimeter pass showed seas to 5 to 6 ft in this area as well. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with moderate to fresh southerly flow south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 6 ft range in a moderate southerly swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore winds will pulse in the Papagayo region tonight, with moderate to fresh winds pulsing Mon night and Tues night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, with SW winds increasing to moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough on Mon into Tues. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the potential for the next tropical cyclone. The remnant low of Blanca is centered near 16N121W with a central pressure of 1013 mb, and is nearly stationary. Scatterometer satellite pass indicated only moderate winds near this low, and seas are likely near 7 ft. There are showers noted within 80 nm of the low. It is expected dissipate in the next 24 hours. A weak and broad ridge across the waters north of 20N is supporting gentle to moderate trade winds across the open waters outside of Blanca, with 5 to 7 ft seas in a mix of NW and S swell. For the forecast, NW swell up to 8 to 9 ft will move into the waters north of 20N between 120W and 130W tonight into Mon, then will subside by midweek. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds can be expected north of the ITCZ west of 125W through most of the week, with seas in the 6 to 7 ft range. The forecast for the remainder of the region depends on the eventual develop and track of the low pressure mentioned in the Special Features section. Even if this low does not develop into a tropical cyclone, it is expected to continue to move westward along roughly 13N, and reach 115W by mid week. At a minimum, mariners can expect fresh to strong winds, possibly rough seas and scattered numerous showers and thunderstorms near this low as it moves westward over the next several days. $$ MTorres/Aguirre