000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061544 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jun 6 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... Gale Warning: Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized during the past few hours in association with an area of low pressure located about 450 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. In addition, satellite images suggest that the low-level circulation is gradually becoming better defined. This system will likely become a tropical depression on Sunday while it moves slowly westward. Environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for additional development in a couple of days. Gale force winds are possible by late today as the low becomes better organized, with seas building 10 to 13 ft. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of tropical wave is analyzed north of 05N along 90W/91W, drifting west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 06N to 08N between 88W and 92W, in the area where the tropical wave is interacting with the monsoon trough. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 07N84W to 07N90W to a 1008 mb low pressure near 13N108W to 14N120W to 08N130W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection from 06N to 10N between 90W and 100W. In addition to the convection near the tropical wave, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 02N to 06N between 78W and 81W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection within 90 nm of the low pressure near 13N108W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A scatterometer satellite pass from 05 UTC confirmed fresh to strong SW gap winds over the northern Gulf of California. These winds are related to deep low pressure north of the area in the lower Colorado River valley. Seas have building over the past several hours in the Gulf of California north of 30N, and likely 4 to 6 ft currently. Light to gentle breezes and slight seas are evident elsewhere over the Gulf of California. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are funneling between a ridge to the west and the coast of Baja California Sur. Gentle to moderate NW breezes are noted elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft seas in a mix of NW and SW swell. Farther south, light to gentle breezes persist off southern Mexico primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong SW gap winds will pulse into the northern Gulf of California through Mon night as a trough moves through the region. Elsewhere, weak ridging will support gentle to moderate winds off Baja California through early next week. Seas will build early in the week off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro due to NW swell. Looking ahead, another trough moving through the region will support fresh NW winds off Baja California by mid week, with fresh to strong winds possible north of Punta Eugenia. Farther south, fresh N gap winds are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Overnight scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate to fresh gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo. An earlier altimeter pass showed seas to 5 to 6 ft in this area as well. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with moderate to fresh southerly flow south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 6 ft range in a moderate southerly swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore winds will pulse in the Papagayo region tonight, with moderate to fresh winds pulsing Mon night and Tues night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, with SW winds increasing to moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough on Mon into Tues. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the potential for the next tropical cyclone. The remnant low of Blanca is centered near 17N122W with a central pressure of 1011 mb, and is nearly stationary. Overnight scatterometer satellite pass indicated only moderate winds near this low, and seas are likely near 7 ft. There are showers noted within 80 nm of the low. It is expected dissipate within the next day. A weak and broad ridge across the waters north of 20N is supporting gentle to moderate trade winds across the open waters outside of Blanca, with 5 to 7 ft seas in a mix of NW and S swell. For the forecast, NW swell up to 8 to 9 ft will move into the waters north of 20N between 120W and 130W today into Mon, then will subside by midweek. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds can be expected north of the ITCZ west of 125W through most of the week, with seas in the 6 to 7 ft range. The forecast for the remainder of the region depends on the eventual develop and track of the low pressure mentioned in the Special Features section. Even if this low does not develop into a tropical cyclone, it is expected to continue to move westward along roughly 13N, and reach 115W by mid week. At a minimum, mariners can expect fresh to strong winds, possibly rough seas and scattered numerous showers and thunderstorms near this low as it moves westward over the next several days. $$ AKR