000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060356 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jun 6 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in association with an area of low pressure located about 500 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. However, recent satellite wind data indicate that the circulation remains broad and not well defined. A tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the system moves slowly westward. Environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development in a few days. Gale force winds are possible by late Sun with seas building 10 to 14 ft. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of tropical wave is analyzed north of 05N along 90W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. No significant weather is associated with this feature. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 07N84W to a 1007 mb low pressure near 13N108W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 17N120W to 10N130W. The ITCZ continues from 10N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection from 06N to 10N between 90W and 100W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection within 90 nm of the low pressure near 13N108W. Scattered moderate convection from 09N to 11N between 136W and 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface observations over inland areas of southern California show fresh to strong W winds, related to deepening low pressure over the Colorado River valley. This is likely supporting fresh SW gap winds over the far northern portions of the Gulf of California, where moderate winds were noted earlier. Seas are likely 2 to 4 ft in this area. Light to gentle breezes and slight seas are evident elsewhere over the Gulf of California. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are funneling between a ridge to the west and the coast of Baja California Sur. Gentle to moderate NW breezes are noted elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft seas in a mix of NW and SW swell. Farther south, light to gentle breezes persist off southern Mexico primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong SW gap winds will pulse into the northern Gulf of California through Mon night as low pressure persists over the lower Colorado River valley. Elsewhere, weak ridging will support gentle to moderate winds off Baja California through early next week. Seas will build early in the week off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro due to NW swell. Looking ahead, another trough moving through the region will support fresh NW winds off Baja California by mid week, with fresh to strong winds possible north of Punta Eugenia. Farther south, fresh N gap winds are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by mid week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate E gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo. A concurrent altimeter pass showed seas to 5 to 6 ft in this area as well. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with moderate southerly flow south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range in a moderate southerly swell. For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through early Mon. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, with SW winds increasing to moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the potential for the next tropical cyclone. The remnant low of Blanca is centered near 17N120W, and is nearly stationary. Seas are probably less than 8 feet. This low is expected dissipate this weekend. A weak and broad ridge across the waters north of 20N is supporting gentle to moderate trade winds across the open waters outside of Blanca, with 5 to 7 ft seas in a mix of NW and S swell. For the forecast, NW swell up to 8 to 10 ft will move into the waters north of 20N between 120W and 130W Sun into Mon, then will subside into mid week. The forecast for the remainder of the region depends on the eventual develop and track of the low pressure mentioned in the Special Features section. Even if this low does not develop into a tropical cyclone, it is expected to continue to move westward along roughly 13N, and reach 120W by mid week. At a minimum, mariners can expect fresh to strong winds, possibly rough seas and scattered numerous showers and thunderstorms near this low as it moves westward. $$ Christensen