000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051610 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jun 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 500 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while it moves slowly to the west-northwest well off the coast of Mexico. Gale force winds will be possible starting tonight with seas building 8 to 9 ft. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of tropical wave is analyzed north of 04N along 87W, nearly stationary. A few thunderstorms are noted where this tropical wave is intersecting with the monsoon trough. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 12N99W to a 1006 mb low pressure near 13N108W to 09N126W. The ITCZ continues from 09N126W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N and E of 84W, from 10N to 16N between 100W to 103W, and from 04N to 10N between 121W to 122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough west of Guadalupe Island, from 30N118W to 24N123W, breaking up a weak ridge centered west of the area. This pattern is supporting moderate NW winds with 4 to 5 ft seas off Baja California. Fresh SW gap winds are possible over the far norther Gulf of California. Light to gentle breezes with 4 to 5 ft seas in SW swell are evident off southern Mexico. There may be some areas of smoke or haze near the entrance to the Gulf of California related to forest fires and agricultural burning over coastal sections of Sinaloa. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong SW gap winds will pulse into the northern Gulf of California through Sun as a trough moves through the region. Elsewhere, weak ridging will support gentle to moderate winds off Baja California through early next week. Seas will build early in the week off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro due to NW swell. Farther south, fresh N gap winds are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by mid week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh offshore winds prevail in the Papagayo region through the weekend, as a tropical wave moves across that region. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with moderate southerly flow south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range in a moderate southerly swell. For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through Mon. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, with SW winds increasing to moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough early next week. A moderate southerly swell will gradually subside through Sun, then will build slightly south of the monsoon trough as winds freshen there. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the potential for the next tropical cyclone. The remnant low of Blanca is centered near 16N119W at 1200 UTC moving WNW at 5 kt. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed mainly 15 to 20 kt winds within 90 nm in its northwest quadrant. Seas are probably less than 8 feet. This low is expected to continue to drift west before dissipating this weekend. A weak and broad ridge across the waters north of 20N is supporting gentle to moderate trades across the open waters outside of Blanca, with 5 to 7 ft seas in a mix of NW and S swell. For the forecast, NW swell up to 8 to 9 ft will move into the waters north of 20N between 120W and 130W Sun into Mon, then will subside. The forecast for the remainder of the region depends on the eventual develop and track of the low pressure mentioned in the Special Features section. Even if this low does not develop into a tropical cyclone, it is expected to continue to move westward along roughly 13N, and reach 120W by mid week. At a minimum, mariners can expect fresh to strong winds, possibly rough seas and scattered numerous showers and thunderstorms near this low as it moves westward. $$ Torres