000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050843 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Jun 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 500 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while it moves slowly to the west-northwest well off the coast of Mexico. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of tropical wave is analyzed north of 05N along 86W through Costa Rica, nearly stationary. A few thunderstorms are noted where this tropical wave is intersecting with the monsoon trough from 08N to 10N between 83W and 85W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 12N97W to a 1009 mb low pressure near 13N107W to 13N115W to 09N130W. The ITCZ continues from 08N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 10N to 15N between 102W to 110W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A recent scatterometer satellite pass from 05 UTC confirmed a surface trough west of Guadalupe Island, from 30N119W to 25N123W, breaking up a weak ridge centered west of the area. This pattern is supporting moderate NW winds with 4 to 5 ft seas off Baja California currently. Fresh SW gap winds are possible over the far norther Gulf of California. Light to gentle breezes with 4 to 5 ft seas in SW swell are evident off southern Mexico. There may be some areas of smoke or haze near the entrance to the Gulf of California related to forest fires and agricultural burning over coastal sections of Sinaloa. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong SW gap winds will pulse into the northern Gulf of California through Sun night as a trough moves through the region. Elsewhere, weak ridging will support gentle to moderate winds off Baja California through early next week. Seas will build early in the week off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro due to NW swell. Farther south, fresh N gap winds are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by mid week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh offshore winds prevail in the Papagayo region, as a tropical wave moves across that region. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with moderate southerly flow south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range in a moderate southerly swell. For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore winds will pulse in the Papagayo region into Mon. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, with SW winds increasing to moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough early next week. A moderate southerly swell will gradually subside through Sun, then will build slightly south of the monsoon trough as winds freshen there. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the potential for the next tropical cyclone. The remnant low of Blanca is centered near 16N118W at 0600 UTC moving WNW at 5 kt. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed mainly 15 to 20 kt winds within 90 nm in its northwest quadrant. Seas are probably less than 8 feet. This low is expected to continue to drift west before dissipating this weekend. A weak and broad ridge across the waters north of 20N is supporting gentle to moderate trades across the open waters outside of Blanca, with 5 to 7 ft seas in a mix of NW and S swell. For the forecast, NW swell up to 8 ft will move into the waters north of 20N between 120W and 130W Sun into Mon, then will subside. The forecast for the remainder of the region depends on the eventual develop and track of the low pressure mentioned in the Special Features section. Even if this low does not develop into a tropical cyclone, it is expected to continue to move westward along roughly 13N, and reach 120W by mid week. At a minimum, mariners can expect fresh to strong winds, possibly rough seas and scattered numerous showers and thunderstorms near this low as it moves westward. $$ Christensen