000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050302 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jun 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... A broad area of low pressure located about 500 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while it moves slowly to the west-northwest well off the coast of Mexico. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of tropical wave is analyzed north of 04N along 84W through Costa Rica, moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 06N to 09N between 85W and 92W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to a 1008 mb low pressure near 13N107W to 08N132W. The ITCZ continues from 08N132W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 10N to 15N between 102W to 110W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 09N between 124W and 128W, and from 07N to 09N between 138W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed a surface trough west of Guadalupe Island, from 29N120W to 27N125W, breaking up a weak ridge centered west of the area. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds with 4 to 5 ft seas off Baja California currently. Fresh SW gap winds are possible over the far norther Gulf of California. Light to gentle breezes with 4 to 5 ft seas in SW swell are evident off southern Mexico. There may be some areas of smoke or haze near the entrance to the Gulf of California related to forest fires and agricultural burning over coastal sections of Sinaloa. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active off the coast of Michoacan, beyond 120 nm. This activity is on the northern periphery of an area of low pressure developing farther offshore near 13N107W. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong SW gap winds will pulse into the northern Gulf of California tonight through Sun as the surface trough currently west of Guadalupe Island moves through the region. Elsewhere, weak ridging will support gentle to moderate winds off Baja California through early next week. Seas will build early in the week off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro due to NW swell. Farther south, fresh N gap winds are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by mid week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh offshore winds prevail in the Papagayo region, as a tropical wave approaches that region. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with moderate southerly flow south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range in a moderate southerly swell. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong offshore winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through Sun night, in the wake of the tropical wave moving across the region. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, with SW winds increasing to moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough early next week, and becoming strong briefly off Costa Rica Mon night into Tue. A moderate southerly swell will gradually subside through Sun, then will build slightly south of the monsoon trough as winds freshen there. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the potential for the next tropical cyclone. The remnant low of Blanca is centered near 16N118W at 0000 UTC moving WNW at 5 kt with 20 KT winds within 90 nm in its northwest quadrant and seas less than 8 feet. This low is expected to continue to drift west before dissipating this weekend. A weak and broad ridge across the waters north of 20N is supporting gentle to moderate trades across the open waters outside of Blanca, with 5 to 7 ft seas in a mix of NW and S swell. For the forecast, winds and seas within 100 nm in the northwest semicircle of the remnant low of Blanca will diminish over the next 48 hours as the low stalls near 15N120W, before eventually dissipating through late Sun. Meanwhile, NW swell up to 8 ft will move into the waters north of 25N between 120W and 130W Sun into Mon, then will subside. The forecast for the remainder of the region depends on the eventual develop and track of the low pressure mentioned in the Special Features section. Even if this low does not develop into a tropical cyclone, it is expected to continue to move westward along roughly 13N, and reach 120W by mid week. At a minimum, mariners can expect fresh to strong winds, possibly rough seas and scattered numerous showers and thunderstorms near this low as it moves westward. $$ Christensen