000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042159 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jun 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... An area of low pressure has developed within a larger-scale trough located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system have become better organized today, and further development is now expected. A tropical depression is likely to form by early next week as it moves slowly to the west-northwest well off the coast of Mexico. These system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of tropical wave is entering the basin near 81W, from 03N northward across Panama, moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 04N to 08N between 77W and 86W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... Segments of the monsoon trough axis extends from 07N78W to 10N96W to a 1009 mb low pressure near 12N107W to 12N110W, and from 11N116W to a 1011 mb low near 10N127W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 09N to 16N between 102W to 110W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on newly downgraded post-tropical low of Blanca located south of Clarion Island. Elsewhere, a weak ridge dominates the waters west of Baja California producing gentle to locally moderate NW-N winds with seas of 4-6 ft in mixed long period swell, reaching near 7 ft off Clarion Island due to swell from Blanca. Light and variable winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in SW swell are noted elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong SW gap winds will pulse into the northern Gulf of California tonight through Sun as a trough moves through the region. Elsewhere, weak ridging will support gentle to moderate winds off Baja California through early next week. Seas will build early in the week off Baja California due to NW swell, while moderate SW swell off southern Mexico will subside starting Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate offshore winds prevail in the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with moderate southerly flow south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range in a moderate southerly swell. For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through Sun. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, increasing to moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough early next week. A moderate southerly swell will gradually subside through Sun, then will build slightly south of the monsoon trough as winds freshen there. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the potential for the next tropical cyclone. The remnant low of Blanca is centered near 16N117W at 1800 UTC moving WNW at 6 kt with 20 KT winds and seas less than 8 feet. The low level circulation is completely exposed under westerly shear, with only a few diminishing showers approximately 100 nm to the west. The remnant low of Blanca is expected to continue to drift west before dissipating this weekend. A weak and broad ridge across the waters north of 20N is supporting gentle to moderate trades across the open waters outside of Blanca, with 5 to 7 ft seas in a mix of NW and S swell. For the forecast, winds and seas within 100 nm in the northwest semicircle of the remnant low of Blanca will diminish over the next 48 hours as the low stalls near 15N120W, before eventually dissipating through late Sun. Meanwhile, NW swell up to 8 ft will move into the waters north of 25N between 120W and 130W Sun into Mon, then will subside. Looking ahead, global models are indicating a low will form Sat into Sun outside of the offshore waters area of southern Mexico, beyond 240 nm. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while it drifts west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico. $$ Torres