000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041601 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Jun 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... Post-Tropical Cyclone Blanca is centered near 16.3N 115.6W at 04/0900 UTC moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. The low level circulation is completely exposed under westerly shear, with only a few diminishing showers approximately 180 nm to the west. Seas are still 8 to 9 ft within 120 nm in the northwest semicircle of the low pressure. The remnant low of Bianca is expected to continue to drift west before dissipating by late Sun. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of tropical wave is entering the basin near 80W, from 03N northward across central Panama, moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 05N to 08N between 77W and 85W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... Segments of the monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 10N90W to 12N108W, and from 11N116W to beyond 08N139W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 07N to 19N between 96W and 108W and from 06N to 11N between 119W to beyond 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on newly downgraded post-tropical low of Blanca located south of Clarion Island. Elsewhere, a weak ridge dominates the waters west of Baja California producing gentle to locally moderate NW-N winds with seas of 4-6 ft in mixed long period swell, reaching near 7 ft off Clarion Island due to swell from Blanca. Light and variable winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in SW swell are noted elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico. For the forecast, the remnant low of Blanca centered just south of Clarion Island will continue to weaken as it drifts farther west through Sun. Fresh to occasionally strong SW gap winds will pulse into the northern Gulf of California tonight through Sun as a trough moves through the region. Elsewhere, weak ridging will support gentle to moderate winds off Baja California through early next week. Seas will build early in the week off Baja California due to NW swell, while moderate SW swell off southern Mexico will subside starting Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate offshore winds prevail in the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with moderate southerly flow south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range in a moderate southerly swell. For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through Sun. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, increasing to moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough early next week. A moderate southerly swell will gradually subside through Sun, then will build slightly south of the monsoon trough as winds freshen there. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on newly downgraded post-tropical low of Blanca located south of Clarion Island. A weak and broad ridge across the waters north of 20N is supporting gentle to moderate trades across the open waters outside of Blanca, with 5 to 7 ft seas in a mix of NW and S swell. For the forecast, winds and seas within 120 nm in the northwest semicircle of the remnant low of Blanca will diminish over the next 48 hours as the low stalls near 15N120W, before eventually dissipating through late Sun. Meanwhile, NW swell up to 8 ft will move into the waters north of 25N between 120W and 130W Sun into Mon, then will subside. Looking ahead, global models are indicating a low will form Sat into Sun outside of the offshore waters area of southern Mexico, beyond 240 nm. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while it drifts west- northwestward well off the coast of Mexico. $$ Torres