100 AXPZ20 KNHC 031532 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jun 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... Tropical Depression Blanca is centered near 15.7N 114.0W at 03/1500 UTC moving W at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm in the northeast quadrant with scattered moderate convection elsewhere within 360 nm in the northeast and east quadrants. Blanca is forecast to become a remnant low by Fri morning, then to dissipate by Mon morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 11N74W to 06N80W to 10N90W to 09N100W to 13N110W, then resumes south of Blanca near 11N115W to 12N124W to 09N135W. The ITCZ continues from 09N135W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 77W and 81W, within 120 nm southwest of the coast of Central America and Mexico between 81W and 100W, from 07N to 11N between 97W and 110W, and from 07N to 13N between 130W and 137W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 93W and 96W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Blanca. Otherwise, a weak ridge dominates the waters west of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW-N winds with seas of 4-7 ft. Light and variable winds are noted elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico, except for a plume of moderate N-NE winds in the Tehuantepec region. Seas of 5-7 ft in southerly swell prevail elsewhere, except 7-8 ft reaching the waters between Socorro and Clarion Islands due to the proximity of Blanca. For the forecast, the ridge west of Baja California will prevail with little change in winds and seas there through the end of the week. The pressure gradient in that region will tighten some this weekend into early next week, bringing some increase in winds. Moderate southerly winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of California through Fri, then fresh to strong pulses are expected Fri night and Sat night as a weak low or trough moves across that region. Seas of 6-8 ft in northerly swell may reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia by Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate offshore winds prevail in the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with moderate southerly flow south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range in a moderate southerly swell. For the forecast, winds will pulse to moderate to fresh in the Papagayo region through Sun morning. Southerly flow will freshen south of the monsoon trough by the end of the weekend into early next week. Seas will gradually subside to 4-6 ft across the offshore waters by Fri, and to 3-5 ft during the upcoming weekend. Seas will then build to 4-7 ft south of the monsoon trough early next week as winds freshen there. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Blanca. A weak and broad ridge dominates the northern forecast region and extends across the waters north of the convergence zone. A stationary front is just northwest of the area near 30N141W to just north of the Hawaiian Islands. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the open waters outside of Blanca, except locally fresh within about 120 nm north of the monsoon trough between 120W and 140W. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range across the open waters. For the forecast, little change in marine conditions is expected as weakening Blanca moves toward the west within the trade wind flow. A set of fresh northerly swell is forecast to propagate into the forecast waters north of 25N between 120W and 135W by the end of the weekend into early next week, potentially building seas there to 7-9 ft. $$ Lewitsky