000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030915 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Jun 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... Tropical Depression Blanca is centered near 15.6N 113.5W at 03/0900 UTC moving W at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Blanca is a swirl of low-level clouds with shallow convection. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection has recently developed within about 60 nm NE quadrant of center. Scattered moderate convection is noted mainly on the E side of the weakening cyclone from 13N to 17N between 109W and 113W. The depression is moving toward the west, and this general motion, with some slight increase in forward speed, is expected through Saturday. Blanca is likely to degenerate into a remnant low later today or tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to 07N85W to 09N100W to 13N110W, then resumes southwest of Blanca near 14N115W to 1010 mb low pressure near 09N134W. The ITCZ continues from 09N134W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 75 nm of the coasts of western Panama and southern Costa Rica. Similar convection is seen from 03N to 05N between 79W and 81W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 91W and 98W, from 07N to 10N between 101W and 110W, and near the above mentioned low pressure from 08N to 11N between 131W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Tropical Depression Blanca is about 240 nm SSW of the Socorro Island. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. Otherwise, a weak ridge dominates the waters west of Baja California producing light to gentle NW-N winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Light and variable winds are noted elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico with seas of 5 to 7 ft in southerly swell. Seas of 7 to 8 ft are still reaching the waters between Socorro and Clarion Islands due to the proximity of Blanca. For the forecast, the ridge west of Baja California will prevail with little change in winds and seas there through the end of the week. The pressure gradient in that region will tighten some this weekend into early next week, bringing some increase in winds. Moderate southerly winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of California through Fri, then fresh to strong pulses are expected Fri night and Sat night as a weak low or trough moves across that region. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in northerly swell may reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia by late Sun or Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh offshore winds prevail in the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with moderate southerly flow south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range in a moderate southerly swell. For the forecast, winds will continue to pulse to moderate to fresh in the Papagayo region through Sun morning. Seas will gradually subside to 4 to 6 ft across the offshore waters by Fri, and to 3 to 5 ft during the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details regarding Tropical Depression Blanca. A ridge dominates the northern forecast region and extends from a 1021 mb high centered north of the area near 32N135W. A stationary front is just behind the the high and crosses near 31N140W. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the open waters outside of Blanca, except locally fresh within about 120 nm N of the monsoon trough between 125W and 127W. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range across the open waters. For the forecast, little change in marine conditions is expected as weakening Blanca moves toward the west within the trade wind flow. A set of fresh northerly swell is forecast to propagate into the forecast waters north of 25N between 120W and 135W by the end of the weekend into early next week, potentially building seas there to 7-9 ft. $$ GR