000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030318 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jun 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... Tropical Depression Blanca is centered near 15.4N 113.2W at 03/0300 UTC moving W at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Blanca continues to weaken and now is a swirl of low- level clouds with only scattered moderate convection on the E side of the center, particularly from 14N to 17N between 110W and 112W. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, and Blanca is likely to degenerate into a remnant low on Thursday. Blanca is forecast to move westward within the trade wind flow. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 09N76W to 07N80W to 10N90W to 09N110W to 13N109W, then resumes southwest of Blanca near 14N116W to 1010 mb low pressure near 09N131W. The ITCZ continues from 09N131W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 06N to 08N between 89W and 95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 98W and 109W, and from 11N to 15N between 104W and 108W. A cluster of moderate convection is within about 90 nm W semicircle of the low pressure located near 09N131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Blanca is forecast to remain southwest of the offshore forecast waters of Mexico, however outer associated winds and seas may brush the waters between the Revillagigedo and Clarion Islands through Thu. Please see the Special Features section above for details regarding Tropical Storm Blanca. Otherwise, a weak ridge dominates the waters west of Baja California with light to gentle NW-N winds. Light and variable winds are noted elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft in a mix of long period swell, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California, higher near the entrance. For the forecast, the ridge west of Baja California will prevail with little change in winds and seas there through the end of the week. The pressure gradient in that region will tighten some this weekend into early next week, increasing winds to moderate to locally fresh. Moderate southerly winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of California through the end of the week, then fresh to strong pulses Sat night and Sun night. A building set of northerly swell may arrive west of Baja California Norte by the very end of the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh offshore winds prevail in the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with moderate southerly flow south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range in a moderate southerly swell, except 5-8 ft offshore of Ecuador. For the forecast, winds will continue to pulse to moderate to fresh in the Papagayo region through Sun morning. Otherwise, winds will diminish somewhat across the offshore waters through the end of the week, then will return to current levels by the end of the weekend into early next week. The moderate southerly swell will slightly decay through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details regarding Tropical Storm Blanca. A ridge extends across the waters north of the ITCZ, with a 1021 mb high centered north of the area near 32N135W. A cold front is noted west of the high and crosses near 32N140W. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the open waters outside of Blanca, except locally fresh near the low pressure area near 09N131W. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range across the open waters. For the forecast, little change in marine conditions is forecast as weakening Blanca is forecast to move toward the west within the trade wind flow, and as the low near 09N131W gradually opens up into a trough. A set of fresh northerly swell may propagate into the waters north of 25N between 120W and 135W by the end of the weekend into early next week, potentially building seas there to 7-9 ft. $$ GR