000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022107 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jun 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... Tropical Depression Blanca is centered near 15.5N 112.8W at 02/2100 UTC moving W at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Blanca has weakened and is a sheared system with scattered moderate and isolated strong convection noted within 420 nm in the east quadrant. Blanca is forecast to continue to gradually weaken, becoming a post-tropical remnant low by Fri afternoon, and dissipating by Sun afternoon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 1010 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near 10N76W to 07N85W to 111N107W, then resumes southwest of Blanca near 10N117W to 1010 mb low pressure near 12N125W to 10N128W. The ITCZ continues from 10N128W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm south of the monsoon trough between 77W and 107W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 16N between 96W and 101W, and from 08N to 11N between 108W and 115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Blanca is forecast to remain southwest of the offshore forecast waters of Mexico, however outer associated winds and seas may brush the waters between the Revillagigedo and Clarion Islands through Thu. Please see the Special Features section above for details regarding Tropical Storm Blanca. Otherwise, a weak ridge dominates the waters west of Baja California with light to gentle NW-N winds. Light and variable winds are noted elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico, except for a lingering plume of moderate N-NE winds in the Tehuantepec region this afternoon. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft in a mix of long period swell, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California, higher near the entrance. For the forecast, the ridge west of Baja California will prevail with little change in winds and seas there through the end of the week. The pressure gradient in that region will tighten some this weekend into early next week, increasing winds to moderate to locally fresh. Moderate southerly winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of California through the end of the week, then fresh to strong pulses Sat night and Sun night. A building set of northerly swell may arrive west of Baja California Norte by the very end of the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh offshore winds prevail in the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with moderate southerly flow south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range in a moderate southerly swell, except 5-8 ft offshore of Ecuador. For the forecast, winds will continue to pulse to moderate to fresh in the Papagayo region through Sun morning. Otherwise, winds will diminish somewhat across the offshore waters through the end of the week, then will return to current levels by the end of the weekend into early next week. The moderate southerly swell will slightly decay through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details regarding Tropical Storm Blanca. An area of low pressure is along the convergence zone near 12N125W at 1010 mb. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm in the northeast quadrant, and within 360 nm in the southwest quadrant. Otherwise, a ridge extends across the waters north of the ITCZ, with a 1022 mb high centered just north of the area near 31N136W. A cold front is noted west of the high and the forecast waters. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the open waters outside of Blanca, except locally fresh near the low pressure area near 12N125W. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range across the open waters, highest near the low pressure area. For the forecast, little change in marine conditions is forecast as weakening Blanca is forecast to move toward the west within the trade wind flow, and as the low near 12N125W gradually opens up into a trough. A set of fresh northerly swell may propagate into the waters north of 25N between 120W and 135W by the end of the weekend into early next week, potentially building seas there to 7-9 ft. $$ Lewitsky