000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021544
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jun 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

Tropical Storm Blanca is centered near 15.5N 112.2W at 02/1500
UTC moving WNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50
kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
within 240 nm in the east quadrant of Blanca. Blanca is 
forecast to weaken to a tropical depression Thu morning, then to 
a remnant low Sat morning, dissipating by Mon morning.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for 
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 1010 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia near 10N75W to 07N82W to 10N104W, then resumes
south of Blanca near 10N115W to 1010 mb low pressure near
11N126W. The ITCZ continues from 11N126W to 06N140W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N
between 77W and 85W, within 150 nm south-southwest of the monsoon
trough between 85W and 104W, and from 07N to 12N between 104W and
117W. Similar convection is noted from 11N to 16N between 92W and
103W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Blanca is forecast to remain southwest of the 
offshore forecast waters of Mexico, however outer associated 
winds and seas may reach the waters between the Revillagigedo 
and Clarion Islands today. Please see the Special Features 
section above for details regarding Tropical Storm Blanca. 

Otherwise, a weak ridge dominates the waters west of Baja
California with light to gentle NW-N winds. Light and variable
winds are noted elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico,
except diminishing moderate to fresh N-NE winds in the
Tehuantepec region this morning. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft in a mix
of long period swell, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of 
California, higher near the entrance. 

For the forecast, the ridge west of Baja California will prevail
with little change in winds and seas there through the end of the
week. The pressure gradient in that region will tighten some 
this weekend into early next week, increasing winds to moderate 
to locally fresh. Moderate southerly winds will pulse in the 
northern Gulf of California through the end of the week, then 
fresh to strong pulses Sat night and Sun night. A building set of
northerly swell may arrive west of Baja California Norte by the 
very end of the weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh offshore winds prevail in the Papagayo region.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon
trough, with moderate southerly flow south of the monsoon trough.
Seas are in the 4-7 ft range in a moderate southerly swell,
except 5-8 ft offshore of Ecuador.

For the forecast, winds will diminish somewhat across the
offshore waters through the end of the week, then will return to
current levels by the end of the weekend into early next week.
The moderate southerly swell will slightly decay through the
weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details
regarding Tropical Storm Blanca. 

An area of low pressure is along the convergence zone near 
11N126W at 1011 mb. Numerous moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted within 300 nm in the northwest semicircle of 
the low. Otherwise, a ridge extends across the waters north of
the ITCZ, with a 1021 mb high centered near 31N136W. A weakening
cold front is noted west of the high and the forecast waters.
Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the open waters outside
of Blanca, except locally fresh near the low pressure area near
11N126W. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range across the open waters,
highest near the low pressure area. 

For the forecast, little change in marine conditions is forecast
as weakening Blanca is forecast to move toward the west within 
the trade wind flow, and as the low near 11N126W gradually opens 
up into a trough. A set of fresh northerly swell may propagate 
into the waters north of 25N between 120W and 135W by the end of 
the weekend into early next week, potentially building seas there
to 7-9 ft.

$$
Lewitsky