000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020912 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jun 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... Tropical Storm Blanca is centered near 15.0N 112.0W at 02/0900 UTC moving WNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is within 150 nm NE semicircle of center. Blanca is forecast to weaken during the next few days, and could become a tropical depression by Thursday. A slower west-northwestward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a slow westward motion through late this week and into the weekend. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 08N90W to 12N104W, then resumes southwest of Tropical Storm Blanca near 13N117W to 12N124W. The ITCZ continues from 12N124W to 06N140W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is from 11N to 13N between 106W and 109W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N to 08N between 80W and 83W, from 07N to 10N between 95W and 105W, and from 09N to 14N between 122W and 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Blanca is forecast to remain southwest of the offshore forecast waters of Mexico, however outer associated winds and seas will reach the waters between the Revillagigedo and Clarion Islands today. Please see the Special Features section above for details regarding Tropical Storm Blanca. Otherwise, a weak ridge will continue to dominate the offshore waters of Baja California the remainder of the week producing mainly light to gentle NW to N winds. Seas are generally in the 5 to 7 ft range in southerly swell. Seas of 7-9 ft are noted per altimeter data between the Revillagigedo and Clarion Islands. These seas will subside by tonight as Blanca moves away from the Mexican islands. Gulf of California: Gentle southerly winds and seas 3 ft or less are expected in the northern part of the Gulf through Thu night. Then, gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft will prevail through Sat. Winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 kt during the upcoming weekend. Elsewhere across the Gulf, expect mainly light to gentle southerly winds, with seas building to 3 to 5 ft in southerly swell near the entrance to the Gulf of California tonight through Thu night. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to fresh northerly gap winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region this morning shifting to SE in the afternoon. Gentle winds will prevail the remainder of the week. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in southerly swell are expected through Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh offshore winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through the next several days. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. A moderate southerly swell is supporting seas of 4-7 ft, except 6-8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. This will gradually decay through the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details regarding Tropical Storm Blanca. Otherwise, high pressure prevails across the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate trades dominate W of 130W while mainly light to gentle winds are noted per satellite derived wind data north of 20N and east of 125W. The area of low pressure along the monsoon trough has opened up into a trough that currently extends from 16N124W to 07N125W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is noted on either side of the trough axis. Seas of 8 ft are near the trough axis from 11N to 14N between 124W and 126W. Elsewhere, seas are mainly 5-8 ft in mixed long period swell across the open waters. For the forecast, the ridge will gradually weaken and weakening Blanca is forecast to move toward the west within the trade wind flow. A set of fresh northerly swell may propagate into the waters north of 25N between 120W and 135W by the end of the weekend into early next week, potentially building seas there to 7-9 ft. $$ GR