000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020314 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jun 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... Tropical Storm Blanca is centered near 14.9N 111.6W at 02/0300 UTC moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is within 150 nm NE semicircle of center. Blanca is forecast to weaken during the next few days, and could become a tropical depression by Thursday. A slower motion toward the west-northwest is expected through Thursday, followed by a slow motion toward the west into the weekend. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 08N90W to 12N106W, then resumes southwest of Tropical Storm Blanca near 12N112W to 1012 mb low pressure near 12N124W. The ITCZ continues from 12N124W to 05N140W. A cluster of moderate to scattered strong convection is from 11N to 13N between 105W and 108W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 04N to 07N between 81W and 93W, from 07N to 12N between 101W and 105W, from 09N to 11N between 113W and 116W, and from 10N to 13N between 122W and 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Blanca is forecast to remain southwest of the offshore waters, however outer associated winds and seas will brush the area southwest of the Revillagigedo Islands. Please see the Special Features section above for details regarding Tropical Storm Blanca. Otherwise, a weak ridge dominates the offshore waters of Baja California producing mainly light to gentle NW to N winds. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft in mixed long period swell outside of the fringes of Blanca. For the forecast, the weak ridge will persist through the remainder of the week. Light to gentle winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in SW swell are expected in the Tehuantepec region. Southerly winds will pulse to moderate to fresh in the northern Gulf of California through early Sat, then fresh to strong Sat afternoon through Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds are moderate to fresh across the Papagayo region and gentle to moderate elsewhere. A moderate southerly swell is supporting seas of 4-7 ft, except 6-8 ft offshore of Ecuador. For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through the next several days. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. The moderate southwesterly swell will gradually decay through the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details regarding Tropical Storm Blanca. Otherwise, high pressure prevails across the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ abd W of 120W. Moderate to fresh trades dominate, except gentle to moderate north of 20N and east of 125W. A 1011 mb low pressure center is embedded in the monsoon trough near 12N124W. Seas are mainly 5-8 ft in mixed long period swell across the open waters, except 8-9 ft near the low pressure area. For the forecast, The area of low pressure will gradually open into a trough through the remainder of the week. The ridge will gradually weaken and Blanca, eventually the remnants, move west- northwest. Trades will diminish slightly as a result. A set of fresh northerly swell may propagate into the waters north of 25N between 120W and 135W by the end of the weekend into early next week, potentially building seas there to 7-9 ft. $$ GR