000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012046 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jun 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1920 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... Tropical Storm Blanca is centered near 14.7N 110.9W at 01/2100 UTC moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 300 nm in the east quadrant, 420 nm in the southwest quadrant, and 90 nm in the north quadrant. Blanca is forecast to begin to gradually weaken by early Wed, becoming a tropical depression by early Fri, then becoming a remnant low by Sat afternoon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 1010 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near 10N76W to 07N80W to 11N102W, then resumes southwest of Tropical Storm Blanca near 12N114W to 1011 mb low pressure near 12N124W to 08N131W. The ITCZ continues from 08N131W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 240 nm south of the monsoon trough between 77W and 91W, and from 09N to 12N between 102W and 106W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Blanca is forecast to remain southwest of the offshore waters, however outer associated winds and seas will brush the area southwest of the Revillagigedo Islands. Please see the Special Features section above for details regarding Tropical Storm Blanca. Otherwise, a weak ridge dominates the offshore waters of Baja California producing mainly light to gentle NW to N winds. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft in mixed long period swell outside of the fringes of Blanca. For the forecast, the weak ridge will persist through the remainder of the week. Northerly gap winds will pulse to fresh in the Tehuantepec region tonight through early Wed. Southerly winds will pulse to moderate to fresh in the northern Gulf of California through early Sat, then fresh to strong Sat afternoon through Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds are moderate to fresh across the Papagayo region this afternoon, and gentle to moderate elsewhere. A moderate southerly swell is supporting seas of 4-7 ft, except 6-8 ft offshore of Ecuador. For the forecast, moderate to fresh offshore winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through the next several days. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. The moderate southwesterly swell will gradually decay through the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details regarding Tropical Storm Blanca. Otherwise, high pressure prevails across the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Moderate to fresh trades dominate, except gentle to moderate north of 20N and east of 125W. A 1011 mb low pressure center is embedded in the monsoon trough near 12N124W. Seas are mainly 5-8 ft in mixed long period swell across the open waters, except 8-9 ft near the low pressure area. For the forecast, The area of low pressure will gradually open into a trough through the remainder of the week. The ridge will gradually weaken and Blanca, eventually the remnants, move west- northwest. Trades will diminish slightly as a result. A set of fresh northerly swell may propagate into the waters north of 25N between 120W and 135W by the end of the weekend into early next week, potentially building seas there to 7-9 ft. $$ Lewitsky