492 AXPZ20 KNHC 011516 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Jun 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... Tropical Storm Blanca is centered near 14.3N 110.2W at 01/1500 UTC moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate convection is within 420 nm in the southeast semicircle and 60 nm in the northwest semicircle. Blanca is forecast to gradually weaken for the next couple of days, becoming a tropical depression on Thu morning, then becoming a remnant low on Sun morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 1011 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near 10N76W to 06N80W to 12N102W, then resumes southwest of Tropical Storm Blanca near 12N113W to 1011 mb low pressure near 12N123W. The ITCZ continues from 12N123W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 77W and 84W, and from 04N to 08N between 84W and 94W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 92W and 102W, and from 09N to 12N between 102W and 105W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge dominates the offshore waters of Baja California producing mainly light to gentle NW to N winds. This will persist the remainder of the week. Seas of 6 to 9 ft associated with T.S. Blanca will reach the waters just south of the Revillagigedo Islands today through Wed night. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in long period S to SW swell are expected elsewhere across the offshore waters of SW Mexico, particularly between Acapulco and Los Cabos. Gulf of California: Gentle southerly winds and seas 3 ft or less are expected in the northern part of the Gulf through Thu night. Then, gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft will prevail through Sat. Elsewhere across the Gulf, expect mainly gentle southerly winds with seas building to 3 to 5 ft in southerly swell near the entrance to the Gulf of California Wed through Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region this morning, then gentle to moderate winds are forecast the remainder of the work week. Seas will be in the of 5 to 7 ft range through tonight, slightly subsiding to 4 to 6 ft through Thu. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds continue S of the monsoon trough while mainly light to gentle winds are N of the monsoon trough. Little change is expected through Fri. Seas of 6 to 7 ft in SW swell between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will persist through at least Wed night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details regarding Tropical Storm Blanca. A ridge will remain in place over the northern forecast waters through mid-week while weakening as a cols front approaches from the west. Currently, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds north of the ITCZ west of about 120W with seas of 7-8 ft due to northeast wind waves and a south swell. Seas will subside to less than 8 ft on Tue. A low pressure of 1011 mb persists along the monsoon trough near 11N123W. Associated winds are 20 kt or less while an area of 8 to 9 ft seas is moving in tandem with this low. The low will continue to move westward and seas will subside below 8 ft in about 36-48 hours. Long-period southerly swell has reached the coasts of Mexico and central America and dominates most of the waters E of 120W. Seas of 7 to 8 ft are noted N of the equator to about 9N-10N. Seas will gradually subside to less than 8 ft by late Wed. $$ Lewitsky