000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010914 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jun 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... Tropical Storm Blanca is centered near 14.2N 109.6W at 01/0900 UTC moving NW at 6 kt. A slower W-NW motion is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a slow westward motion. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within about 90 nm of center. Similar convection is seen from 11N to 14N between 104W and 107W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 09N to 12N between 108W and 113W. Strengthening is possible today, followed by gradual weakening beginning tonight and continuing through late this week. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 08N90W to 11N102W, then continues W of T.S. Blanca from 12N114W to a 1011 mb low pres located near 11N123W. The ITCZ continues from 11N123W to 07N130W to 06N140W. Aside from convection associated with T.S. Blanca, clusters of moderate isolated strong convection are noted N of 04N E of 82W to the coast of Colombia. This convective activity is affecting parts of the Gulf of Panama. Similar convection is also noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Scattered moderate convection can be found from 04N to 07N between 89W and 92W, from 10N to 13N between 98W and 101W, and from 10N to 13N between 118W and 121W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge dominates the offshore waters of Baja California producing mainly light to gentle NW to N winds. This will persist the remainder of the week. Seas of 6 to 9 ft associated with T.S. Blanca will reach the waters just south of the Revillagigedo Islands beginning today through Wed night. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in long period S to SW swell are expected elsewhere across the offshore waters of SW Mexico, particularly between Acapulco and Los Cabos. Gulf of California: Gentle southerly winds and seas 3 ft or less are expected in the northern part of the Gulf through Thu night. Then, gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft will prevail through Sat. Elsewhere across the Gulf, expect mainly gentle southerly winds with seas building to 3 to 5 ft in southerly swell near the entrance to the Gulf of California Wed through Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region this morning, then gentle to moderate winds are forecast the remainder of the work week. Seas will be in the of 5 to 7 ft range through Tue night, slightly subsiding to 4 to 6 ft through Thu. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds continue S of the monsoon trough while mainly light to gentle winds are N of the monsoon trough. Little change is expected through Fri. Seas of 6 to 7 ft in SW swell between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will persist through at least Wed night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details regarding Tropical Storm Blanca. A ridge will remain in place over the northern forecast waters through mid-week while weakening as a cols front approaches from the west. Currently, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds north of the ITCZ west of about 120W with seas of 7-8 ft due to northeast wind waves and a south swell. Seas will subside to less than 8 ft on Tue. A low pressure of 1011 mb persists along the monsoon trough near 11N123W. Recent scatterometer data show fresh NE winds within about 120 nm NW quadrant of low center. An area of 8 to 9 ft seas is moving in tandem with this low and now covers the waters from 07N to 14N between 120W and 126W. The low will continue to move westward and seas will subside below 8 ft in about 36-48 hours. An upper-level low located just W of 140W is generating some shower activity from 13N to 18N W of 130W. Long-period southerly swell has reached the coasts of Mexico and central America and dominates most of the waters E of 120W. Seas of 7 to 8 ft are noted N of the equator to about 9N-10N. Seas will gradually subside to less than 8 ft by late Wed. $$ GR