000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010316 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Jun 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... Tropical Storm Blanca is centered near 13.9N 109.4W at 01/0300 UTC moving WNW at 8 kt. A slower WNW to NW motion is expected during the next few days. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong is noted within 75 nm E and 60 nm W semicircles of center. Similar convection is seen from 11N to 14N between 103W and 105W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 10N to 17N between 105W and 111W. Blanca is strengthening and will likely reach its peak intensity later tonight or Tue. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by Tuesday night and then continue through Thursday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 08N90W to 11N102W, then continues W of TS Blanca from 12N112W to a 1011 mb low pres located near 11N122W. The ITCZ continues from 11N122W to 07N130W to 06N140W. Aside from convection associated with TS Blanca, scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 13N between 111W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters mainly N of 15N and W of 120W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over Mexico has relaxed due to the presence of TS Blanca S of the Revillagigedo Islands. As a result, mainly light to gentle NW to N winds as expected across the offshore waters of Baja California the remainder of the week. Seas of 6-9 ft associated with TS Blanca will reach the waters just south of the Revillagigedo Islands beginning today through Thu. Gulf of California: Gentle southerly winds and seas 3 ft or less will prevail in the northern part of the Gulf through Thu. Then, gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail through Sat. Elsewhere across the Gulf expect mainly gentle southerly winds with seas building to 3-5 ft near the entrance to the Gulf of California Wed through Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail in the Papagayo region through Tue morning then decrease to gentle to moderate through Fri. Seas will be in the of 5-7 ft range through Tue night. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds continue S of the monsoon trough, and mainly gentle winds N of the monsoon trough. Little change is expected through mid-week. Seas to 7 ft in SW swell between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will persist through at least Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details regarding Tropical Storm Blanca. A ridge will remain in place over the northern forecast waters through mid-week while weakening some. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds north of the ITCZ west of about 120W with seas of 7-8 ft due to northeast wind waves and a south swell. Seas will subside to less than 8 ft on Tue. Long-period southerly swell will continue to propagate mainly across the forecast waters E of 120W, building seas to 8-9 ft N of the equator to about 8N-9N. Seas of 8-9 ft are also expected through Tue in the vicinity of a 1011 mb low pres now located within the monsoon trough near 11N122W. $$ GR