000 AXPZ20 KNHC 312205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon May 31 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... Tropical Storm Blanca is centered near 13.5N 108.9W at 31/2100 UTC moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 10N to 18N between 100W and 117W. A slower west- northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Additional strengthening is expected tonight and Tuesday, followed by slow weakening on Wednesday and Thursday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 08N90W to 11N101W, then continues W of TS Blanca from 12N112W to a 1012 mb low pres located near 11N121W. The ITCZ continues from 11N121W to 06N130W to 05N140W. Aside from convection associated with TS Blanca, scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 08N E of 89W. Scattered moderate convection is associated with the 1012 mb low from 08N to 13N between 118W and 124W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure located N of the area southeastward to just west of the Baja California offshores producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds across the offshore waters of Baja California with seas to 7 ft. These marine conditions will persist through mid-week. Seas may increase to 8 ft just S of the Revillagigedo Islands Tue evening into Wed as the tropical cyclone in the special features passes S of the islands. Gulf of California: Gentle southerly winds and seas 3 ft or less will prevail in the northern part of the Gulf during the next several days. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas in the 2 to 4 ft range are expected across the central and southern parts of the Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 6-8 ft may affect the far offshore waters from Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes this evening through Tue night as TS Blanca continues to moves WNW and well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will prevail in the Papagayo region through Tue morning then decrease to gentle to moderate through mid-week. Seas will be in the of 5-7 ft range. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds continue S of the monsoon trough, and mainly gentle winds N of the monsoon trough. Little change is expected through mid-week. Seas to 7 ft in SW swell between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will persist through at least Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details regarding Tropical Storm Blanca. A ridge will remain in place over the northern forecast waters through mid-week while weakening some. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds north of the ITCZ west of about 120W with seas of 7-8 ft due to northeast wind waves and a south swell. Seas will subside to less than 8 ft today. Long-period southerly swell will continue to propagate mainly across the forecast waters E of 120W, building seas to 8-9 ft N of the equator to about 8N-9N. Seas of 8-9 ft are also expected through tonight in the vicinity of a 1012 mb low pres now located within the monsoon trough near 11N121W. $$ Ramos