000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310932 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon May 31 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... Tropical Depression Two-E is centered near 12.2N 106.6W at 31/0900 UTC moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 210 nm NW semicircle of center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 09N to 11N between 105W and 108W. On the forecast track, the tropical cyclone should remain well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm this morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N76W to 08N85W to 11N100W, then continues W of TD Two-E from 11N110W to a 1011 mb low pres located near 10N122W. The ITCZ continues from 10N122W to beyond 07N140W. Aside from convection associated with TD Two-E, scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 12N between 118W and 123W, and from 06N to 10N between west of 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from a 1027 mb high pressure located near 33N133W southeastward to the vicinity of the Revillagigedo Islands. This system supports moderate to fresh northwest winds across the offshore waters of Baja California just north of Cabo San Lucas based on latest scatterometer data. Seas are in the 5 to 8 ft range, highest N of Punta Eugenia. The pressure gradient across the area will relax some beginning tonight. As a result, expect gentle to moderate NW to N winds across the offshore waters of Baja California through mid-week. Seas may increase to 8 ft just S of the Revillagigedo Islands late Tue or Tue evening into Wed as T.D. Two-E as a Tropical Storm passes S of the islands. Gulf of California: Gentle to locally moderate southeasterly winds will continue through Mon along with relatively low seas of 2-3 ft. Light to gentle winds are forecast Mon night through the middle of the week. Gulf of Tehuantepec: moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 6-7 ft may affect the far offshore waters from Tehuantepec to Cabo Corrientes tonight through Mon night as currently T.D Two-E continues to moves WNW and well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail in the Papagayo region through Tue night into Wed. Seas there will be in the 4-6 ft range. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Little change in these conditions is expected through early in the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details regarding Tropical Depression Two-E. A ridge will continue to dominate the northern forecast waters through mid-week. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds north of the ITCZ west of about 120W with seas of 7-9 ft in a combination of northeast wind waves and a south swell. Seas will subside to less than 8 ft on Mon. Long-period southerly swell will continue to propagate mainly across the forecast waters E of 120W building seas to 8-9 ft N of the equator to about 8N-9N by late Mon. Seas of 8-9 ft are also expected through Mon night in the vicinity of a 1011 mb low pres now located within the monsoon trough near 10N121W. $$ GR