000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310913 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon May 31 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... Tropical Depression Two-E is centered near 12.2N 106.6W at 31/0900 UTC moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 210 nm NW semicircle of center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 08N to 11N between 105W and 112W. On the forecast track, the tropical cyclone should remain well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm this morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 08N85W to 11N100W, then continues W of TD Two-E from 12N110W to a 1011 mb low pres located near 10N122W. The ITCZ continues from 10N122W to beyond 07N140W. Aside from convection associated with TD Two-E, scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 12N between 118W and 123W, and from 07N to 10N west of 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from a 1027 mb high pressure located near 33N134W southeastward to the vicinity of the Revillagigedo Islands producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds across the offshore waters of Baja California with seas of 5 to 7 ft. These marine conditions will persist through mid-week. Seas may increase to 8 ft just S of the Revillagigedo Islands Tue evening into Wed as T.D. Two-E as a Tropical Storm passes S of the islands. Gulf of California: Gentle southerly winds and seas 3 ft or less will prevail in the northern part of the Gulf during the next several days. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas in the 2 to 4 ft range are expected across the central and southern parts of the Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 6-8 ft may affect the far offshore waters from Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes today through Tue night as currently TD Two-E, forecast to become a tropical storm, continues to moves WNW and well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail in the Papagayo region through Wed with seas of 5-7 ft. Recent satellite derived wind data show gentle to moderate south to southwest winds S of the monsoon trough, and mainly gentle winds N of the monsoon trough. Little change is expected through mid-week. Seas will increase to 6-7 ft in SW swell between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands beginning today. This will persist through at least Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details regarding Tropical Depression Two-E. A ridge will remain in place over the northern forecast waters through mid-week while weakening some. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds north of the ITCZ west of about 125W with seas of 7-9 ft due to northeast wind waves and a south swell. Seas will subside to less than 8 ft today. Long-period southerly swell will continue to propagate mainly across the forecast waters E of 120W, building seas to 8-9 ft N of the equator to about 8N-9N by late today. Seas of 8-9 ft are also expected through tonight in the vicinity of a 1011 mb low pres now located within the monsoon trough near 10N122W. $$ GR