000 AXPZ20 KNHC 302203 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun May 30 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... The second tropical depression of the 2021 eastern north Pacific hurricane season formed well to the southwest of Mexico. As of 2100 UTC, Tropical Depression Two-E is centered near 11.3N 103.8W, moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is within 270 nm NW semicircle with scattered moderate convection within 370 nm SE semicircle. On the forecast track, the tropical cyclone should remain well offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N83W to just east of TD Two-E near 10N96W then resumes near 11N112W to a 1009 mb low near 10N120W. The ITCZ begins near 07N123W and continues to 06N140W. Aside from convection associated with TD Two-E, scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 08N between 83W and 92W, and from 07N to 11N between west of 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge extends from a 1026 mb high pressure near 34N133W southeastward to the vicinity of the Baja California Norte offshore waters. The associated gradient is producing moderate to fresh northwest winds across the offshore waters of Baja California just north of Cabo San Lucas with seas to 8 ft. The high pressure will continue to dominate the region allowing for moderate to fresh northwest winds across the waters west of Baja California through tonight. The highest seas are north of Punta Eugenia due to the combination of northwest swell mixing with a southwest swell component. This swell will gradually decay through Mon night. Gulf of California: Gentle to locally moderate southeasterly winds will continue through Mon along with relatively low seas of 2-3 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are forecast Mon night through the middle of the week. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Mainly gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will continue in the outer Tehuantepec offshores through this evening as newly formed TD Two-E continues to move west- northwestward at about 8 kt. This may lead to an increase in winds and seas across the outer Guerrero, Mexico offshore waters tonight through Mon as well. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will continue to pulse through Wed with the stongest winds forecast during the night hours. Seas there will be in the 4-6 ft range. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Little change in these conditions is expected through early in the week. Active weather will continue along and near the monsoon trough, mainly over the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Nicaragua through at least Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details regarding newly formed Tropical Depression Two-E. A high pressure ridge will continue to dominate the northern forecast waters through early this week. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds north of the ITCZ west of about 120W with seas of 7-9 ft in a combination of northeast wind waves and a south swell. These conditions will subside early in the week. Long-period south-southwest swell is across the waters primarily south of 04N and between 108W-127W. This set of swell is forecast to continue to propagate north-northeast through Tue building seas to 8-10 ft just south of TD Two-E and a 1010 mb low located near 10N120W. $$ Ramos