000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300922 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun May 30 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... A 1010 mb low centered along the monsoon trough near 10N103W is part of a broad area of low pressure that is located several hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection from 10N to 14N between 101W-105W, and from 08N to 10N between 103W-108W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this system during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while the system moves westward to west- northwestward at about 8 kt. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwestern Colombia to across northern Costa Rica to 10N85W to 10N95W to low pres near 10N103W 1010 mb to 10N112W and to 07N120W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N130W and to beyond 08N140W. Aside from convection described above under the Special Features section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm north of the trough between 118W-121W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 83W-86W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge extends from a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near 33N145W southeastward to the vicinity of the Baja California Norte offshore waters. The associated gradient is producing moderate to fresh northwest winds across the offshore waters of Baja California just north of Cabo San Lucas with seas to 7 ft. The high pressure will continue to dominate the region allowing for moderate to fresh northwest winds across the waters west of Baja California through tonight. Seas are peaking to near 9 ft north of Punta Eugenia due to the combination of northwest swell mixing with a southwest swell component. This swell will gradually decay through Mon night. Gulf of California: Gentle to locally moderate southeasterly winds will continue through Mon along with relatively low seas of 2-3 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are forecast Mon night through the middle of the week. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Mainly gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will continue in the outer Tehuantepec offshores through this evening as a broad area of low pressure that is located several hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico continues to move west-northwestward at about 8 kt. This may lead to an increase in winds and seas across the outer Guerrero, Mexico offshore waters tonight through Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will become gentle to moderate southeast to south winds early tonight, then fresh northeast to east winds from late tonight through early Wed. Seas there will be in the 4-6 ft range. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Little change in these conditions is expected through the weekend. Active weather will continue along and near the monsoon trough, mainly over the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama, through at least Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details regarding a broad area of low pressure that is located several hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. A high pressure ridge will continue to dominate the northern forecast waters through early next week. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds north of the ITCZ west of about 118W. Seas are 5-7 ft across much of the open Pacific waters west of 115W, except in the far western section of the area from 10N to 17N west of 133W, where a combination of northeast wind waves and a south swell is producing seas of 8-9 ft there. These conditions will subside early next week. Long-period south-southwest swell has reached the waters primarily south of 01N and between 111W- 120W. This set of swell is forecast to continue to propagate north-northeast through the weekend building seas to 8-10 ft by early this evening roughly south of a line from 03N134W to 02N110W and to 03.4S at 95W. $$ Aguirre