000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300350 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun May 30 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... A 1010 mb low centered along the monsoon trough near 10N101W is part of a broad area of low pressure that is located several hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Latest satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to strong convection from 10N to 13N between 100W-105W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07N to 10N between 101W-108W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this system during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 8 kt. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwestern Colombia to across northern Costa Rica to 10N85W to 10N90W to low pres near 10N101W 1010 mb to 10N112W and to 07N120W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N130W and to 08N140W. Aside from convection described above under the Special Features section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm south of trough between 103W- 107W. Similar activity is within 60 nm north of trough between 118W- 120W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 134W-137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center near 33N135W southeastward to the vicinity of the Baja California Norte offshore waters. The associated gradient is producing moderate to fresh northwest winds across the offshore waters of Baja California just north of Cabo San Lucas with seas to 7 ft. The high pressure will continue to dominate the region allowing for moderate to fresh northwest winds across the waters west of Baja California through Sun night. Seas are forecast to build to 9 ft N of Punta Eugenia tonight as a new set of northwest swell propagates into the forecast waters and mixes with a southwest swell component. Gulf of California: Gentle to locally moderate southeasterly winds will continue through Mon along with relatively low seas of 2-3 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are forecast Mon night through the middle of the week. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Mainly gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will continue in the outer Tehuantepec offshores through Sun evening as a broad area of low pressure that is located several hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico continues to move west- northwestward at about 8 kt. This may lead to an increase in winds and seas across the outer Guerrero, Mexico offshore waters tonight through Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Mainly gentle to moderate east to south east winds are forecast to continue through Sun evening with seas to 5 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds will begin to pulse over the Gulf of Papagayo early on Mon and continue through Wed. Seas will be in the 5-7 ft range. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Little change in these conditions is expected through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details regarding a broad area of low pressure that is located several hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. A high pressure ridge will continue to dominate the northern forecast waters through early next week. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds north of the ITCZ west of about 120W. Seas are 5-7 ft across much of the open Pacific waters west of 115W, except in the far western section of the area from 10N to 17N west of 125W, where a combination of northeast wind waves and a south swell has developed seas of 8-9 ft there. Long-period south-southwest swell has reached the far south- central waters south of 01N and between 111W-120W. This set of swell is forecast to continue to propagate north-northeast through the weekend building seas to 8-10 ft by late Sun roughly south of a line from 01N124W to 02N112W and to south of 03.4S at 96W. $$ Aguirre