000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292209
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat May 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2110 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

A 1010 mb low pressure near 10N102W is producing numerous 
moderate to isolated strong convection within 135 nm north 
semicircle of the low and scattered moderate convection within 
165 nm south semicircle of the low. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development of this system during 
the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form by the middle of next week while the system moves westward 
to west-northwestward at about 8 kt. There is a medium chance for
this system to become a tropical cyclone within the next two
days. For further information see the National Hurricane Center
Tropical Weather Outlook.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to a 1010 mb low 
pressure near 10N102W to 11N112W to 07N120W. The ITCZ begins 
near 07N120W and continues to 07N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 03N to 08N E of 90W, and from 07N to 14N 
between 112W and 120W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center near
33N133W southeastward to the vicinity of the Baja California 
Norte offshore waters. The associated gradient is producing 
moderate to fresh northwest winds across the offshore waters of 
Baja California just north of Cabo San Lucas with seas to 7 ft. 
The high pressure will continue to dominate the region allowing 
for moderate to fresh northwest winds across the waters west of 
Baja California through Sun night. Seas are forecast to build to 
9 ft N of Punta Eugenia tonight as a new set of northwest swell 
propagates into the forecast waters and mixes with a southwest 
swell component.

Gulf of California: Gentle to locally moderate southeasterly 
winds will continue through Mon along with seas to 3 ft. Light to
gentle variable winds are forecast Mon night through the middle
of the week.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Mainly gentle to moderate east to southeast
winds will continue in the outer Tehuantepec offshores through
Sun evening as a broad area of low pressure several hundred 
miles southwest of the coast of Oaxaca, Mexico continues to move
west-northwestward at about 8 kt.  This may lead to an increase 
in winds and seas across the outer Guerrero, Mexico offshore 
waters Sun and Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Mainly gentle to moderate east to south east
winds are forecast to continue through Sun evening with seas to 5
ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds will begin to pulse over the
Gulf of Papagayo early on Mon and continue through Wed. Seas 
will be in the 5-7 ft range. 

Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are south of the 
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range. Little change in 
these conditions is expected through the weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad area of low pressure is located several hundred miles 
south of Acapulco, Mexico. There is a medium chance for this 
system to become a tropical cyclone within the next two days.
Please see the special features section above for further
details. 

A high pressure ridge will continue to dominate the northern 
forecast waters through early next week. The pressure gradient 
between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ 
is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds north of 
the ITCZ west of about 120W. Seas are 5-7 ft across much of the 
open Pacific waters west of 115W, except in the far western 
section of the area from 10N to 17N west of 125W, where a 
combination of northeast wind waves and a south swell has 
developed seas of 8-9 ft there. 

A new set of long-period south-southwest swell is forecast to 
reach 03.4S late tonight, and continue to propagate north-northeast
through the weekend building seas to 8-10 ft by late Sun roughly
south of a line from 01N124W to 02N112W and to south of 03.4S at
96W.

$$
Ramos